Seattle Mariners vs Boston Red Sox Pick – 4/23/2025

Seattle Mariners vs Boston Red Sox Betting Preview

On April 23, 2025, the Boston Red Sox will host the Seattle Mariners at Fenway Park for the second game of their series. The Red Sox currently hold a record of 14-11, putting them in a solid position early in the season, while the Mariners sit slightly behind at 12-11. Both teams are looking to build momentum, but they face different challenges on the mound today.

The Red Sox are projected to start Sean Newcomb, who has struggled this season with a 0-2 record and a 3.63 ERA. Despite his decent ERA, Newcomb's 2.57 FIP indicates he may have been unlucky, suggesting potential for improvement. However, he has also been high-walk, averaging 11.1% BB this year, which could play into the hands of the Mariners' patient offense, ranked 4th in the league for drawing walks.

Emerson Hancock takes the mound for the Mariners, carrying a dismal 12.71 ERA and a 0-1 record. While Hancock's 4.44 xFIP suggests he could turn things around, he has shown vulnerabilities this season, particularly with a low strikeout rate of 14.8%. This matchup could favor the Red Sox, who rank 2nd in MLB for strikeouts, as they might capitalize on Hancock's inconsistency.

Offensively, the Red Sox are averaging a solid 5.34 runs per game, which aligns with their status as betting favorites with a moneyline of -140. In contrast, the Mariners, with an implied team total of 4.66 runs, will need their power hitters to step up, especially since they rank 5th in home runs.

Quick Takes Seattle Mariners:

Emerson Hancock has used his sinker 22% more often this year (51.8%) than he did last season (29.8%).

• Sinkers are the easiest pitches to hit and generate the fewest strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his sinker more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.

Dylan Moore is an extreme flyball hitter and matches up with the strong outfield defense of Boston (#3-best of the day).

• This player's skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team's defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Cal Raleigh pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (41.2% — 99th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the league's shallowest LF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Boston Red Sox:

The Boston Red Sox outfield defense grades out as the 5th-worst among every team playing today.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.

Triston Casas is penciled in 7th in the lineup in today's game, which would be a downgrade from his 60% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this season.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the team with the 3rd-most strikeout-prone lineup on the slate today is the Boston Red Sox with a 24.6% underlying K%.

• THE BAT X analyzes each player in today's specific lineup to figure out which teams have the most inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Game Trends

• The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 9 of their last 16 games (+5.35 Units / 19% ROI)
• The Seattle Mariners have hit the Moneyline in 9 of their last 13 games (+5.00 Units / 33% ROI)
• Rafael Devers has hit the Singles Under in 9 of his last 10 games (+7.20 Units / 43% ROI)

Seattle Mariners vs Boston Red Sox Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Seattle Mariners 5.02, Boston Red Sox 5.41

• Date: April 23, 2025
• Venue: Fenway Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Emerson Hancock - Mariners
  • Sean Newcomb - Red Sox

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