Seattle Mariners at San Diego Padres Pick & Prediction – 7/9/2024

Seattle Mariners vs San Diego Padres Details

• Date: July 9, 2024
• Venue: Petco Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Logan Gilbert - Mariners
  • Adam Mazur - Padres

Betting Odds

Seattle Mariners vs San Diego Padres Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Seattle Mariners vs San Diego Padres Betting Preview

The San Diego Padres will host the Seattle Mariners on July 9, 2024, at Petco Park in an Interleague matchup. Both teams boast above-average seasons, with the Padres holding a record of 49-45 and the Mariners slightly ahead at 49-43. The Padres are currently underdogs with a moneyline of +120, suggesting an implied win probability of 44%.

The Mariners have the edge in pitching with Logan Gilbert taking the mound. According to THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, Gilbert is ranked as the 48th best starting pitcher in baseball. He has an impressive 2.91 ERA over 18 starts, although his 3.54 xFIP indicates he might be due for some regression. Gilbert projects to pitch 5.7 innings today, allowing 2.6 earned runs and 1.1 walks, which is notable given the Padres' strong offense.

On the other side, Adam Mazur will start for the Padres. Mazur, ranked 232nd among starters, has struggled this year with a 7.52 ERA and a 1-2 Win/Loss record over six starts. Despite his high ERA, his 6.12 xFIP suggests he might have been somewhat unlucky. Mazur's projections are less favorable, with an average of 4.8 innings pitched, 2.5 earned runs allowed, and 1.4 walks.

While the Padres' pitching is a concern, their offense ranks 10th overall and leads MLB in team batting average, standing at 1st. They are also 8th in home runs, showcasing their power at the plate. Jurickson Profar has been the standout performer over the last week, hitting .333 with 3 home runs and a 1.226 OPS in six games.

Seattle's offense, however, has been a weak point, ranking 28th overall and 30th in team batting average. Despite this, they’ve shown average power, ranking 12th in home runs. Mitch Garver has been a bright spot recently, hitting .263 with 2 home runs and a .879 OPS over the last five games.

The betting line reflects the Mariners' advantage in pitching and the Padres' strong offense. However, given the Padres' solid bullpen, ranked 9th, and the Mariners' bullpen struggles, ranked 27th, San Diego may have a path to victory if they can get to the Mariners' bullpen early. This game promises to be an intriguing matchup with several key factors potentially influencing the outcome.

Quick Takes Seattle Mariners:

Logan Gilbert's 1973-rpm fastball spin rate this year ranks in the 1st percentile out of all SPs.

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Jorge Polanco has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this season (77% of the time), but he is projected to bat 8th on the lineup card in this game.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Cal Raleigh, the Mariners's expected catcher in today's matchup, projects as an elite pitch framer according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Pitch framing is a catcher's ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, "stealing" strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Quick Takes San Diego Padres:

Adam Mazur has been given a below-average leash this year, throwing 13.3 fewer adjusted pitches-per-game than the average pitcher.

• Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.

David Peralta may have an edge against every reliever throughout the game, since the bullpen of the Seattle Mariners only has 1 same-handed RP.

• Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the San Diego Padres' bullpen projects as the 9th-best among all teams in the majors.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Over in 30 of their last 48 games at home (+11.65 Units / 22% ROI)
• The Seattle Mariners have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 17 of their last 27 away games (+4.95 Units / 15% ROI)
• Donovan Solano has hit the Runs Under in 22 of his last 29 games (+10.05 Units / 19% ROI)

Seattle Mariners vs San Diego Padres Prediction

Final Score: Seattle Mariners 4.61 vs San Diego Padres 4.34

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