Seattle Mariners at Baltimore Orioles Pick & Prediction – 5/19/2024

Seattle Mariners vs Baltimore Orioles Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: May 19, 2024
• Venue: Oriole Park at Camden Yards
• Starting Pitchers:
  • George Kirby - Mariners
  • Corbin Burnes - Orioles

Betting Odds

Seattle Mariners vs Baltimore Orioles Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Seattle Mariners vs Baltimore Orioles Betting Preview

The Baltimore Orioles are set to host the Seattle Mariners in an American League matchup on May 19, 2024, at Oriole Park at Camden Yards. The Orioles, with a season record of 28-15, are having a great season, while the Mariners hold a solid record of 25-21, making it an above-average season for them.

The Orioles are projected to start right-handed pitcher Corbin Burnes, who has been ranked as the 19th best starting pitcher in MLB according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings. Burnes has started nine games this year, boasting a win/loss record of 3-2 and an impressive ERA of 2.68. However, his 3.27 xFIP suggests that he may have been lucky this season and could potentially perform worse going forward.

On the other side, the Mariners are projected to start right-handed pitcher George Kirby, who is ranked as the 21st best starting pitcher in MLB. Kirby has also started nine games this season, with a win/loss record of 4-3 and an ERA of 3.58. Interestingly, his 3.04 xERA and 2.86 FIP indicate that he has been unlucky and may perform better going forward.

The Orioles offense ranks as the 7th best in MLB this season, showcasing their talent and potential. Their team batting average ranks 14th, while their team home runs and stolen bases rank 17th. The Mariners offense, on the other hand, ranks as the 19th best in MLB, with their team batting average ranking 24th, team home runs ranking 13th, and stolen bases ranking 18th.

Looking at the bullpen, both teams have a lower ranking according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings. The Orioles bullpen is ranked 21st, while the Mariners bullpen is ranked 23rd. This suggests that both teams may face challenges in the later innings.

In terms of betting odds, the Orioles are the favorites with a current moneyline of -150, giving them an implied win probability of 58%. The Mariners, considered the underdogs, have a moneyline of +130 and an implied win probability of 42%.

With a Game Total of 7.5 runs, this matchup is expected to be a low-scoring game. The Orioles have an average implied team total of 4.08 runs, while the Mariners have a very low implied team total of 3.42 runs.

Overall, this game promises an intriguing battle between two teams with different strengths. The Orioles' strong offense and solid pitching from Corbin Burnes could give them an advantage. However, the Mariners' George Kirby has the potential to perform better than his numbers suggest. It will be interesting to see how these factors play out on the field.

Quick Takes Seattle Mariners:

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) forecasts that George Kirby will record an average of 17.1 outs today.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, defense, and more.

Luke Raley is projected to bat 5th in the lineup in today's game, which would be an upgrade from his 85% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this season.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

Dylan Moore pulls a lot of his flyballs (39.7% — 98th percentile) but may find it hard to clear the league's deepest LF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Baltimore Orioles:

Corbin Burnes's cut-fastball usage has dropped by 9.8% from last year to this one (55.4% to 45.6%) .

• Because cutters are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use them less often may see less success as a result, particularly if he uses his fastball more instead.

Ryan Mountcastle's quickness has decreased this year. His 28.2 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last season sits at 27.5 ft/sec now.

• Slow players tend to get fewer hits because they can't beat out groundballs, fewer extra base hits, and fewer stolen bases.

It may be best to expect worse numbers for the Baltimore Orioles offense going forward, considering that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) sees them as the 2nd-luckiest offense in the majors this year.

• When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

Game Trends

• The Baltimore Orioles have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 23 of their last 38 games (+6.45 Units / 14% ROI)
• The Seattle Mariners have hit the Run Line in 20 of their last 35 games (+4.20 Units / 9% ROI)
• Julio Rodriguez has hit the Total Bases Under in 30 of his last 44 games (+12.00 Units / 20% ROI)

Seattle Mariners vs Baltimore Orioles Prediction

Final Score: Seattle Mariners 3.67 vs Baltimore Orioles 4.11

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