San Francisco Giants vs New York Yankees Pick – 4/13/2025

San Francisco Giants vs New York Yankees Betting Preview

The New York Yankees will face off against the San Francisco Giants on April 13, 2025, at Yankee Stadium in what promises to be an exciting Interleague matchup. Both teams are performing well this season, with the Yankees holding an 8-6 record and the Giants boasting a strong 10-4 mark. In their last encounter on April 12, the Yankees emerged victorious with an 8-4 win, while the Giants fell by the same score, indicating a potential momentum shift.

Carlos Rodon is projected to take the mound for the Yankees, and despite being ranked 146th among MLB starting pitchers, he has shown flashes of potential this season. His 5.19 ERA is concerning, but his 3.48 xFIP suggests he might be due for a better outing. Rodon projects to pitch about 5.5 innings, allowing an average of 2.7 earned runs, but his tendency to give up 4.5 hits and 2.1 walks per game could be problematic against a Giants offense that ranks 14th overall.

On the other side, Logan Webb is expected to start for the Giants. As the 6th best starting pitcher in MLB, Webb carries an impressive 1.89 ERA and is coming off a stellar performance where he threw 7 innings with no earned runs. He projects to pitch around 6.1 innings today, allowing 2.4 earned runs, which could give the Giants a strong edge.

The Yankees' offense is currently ranked 1st in MLB, demonstrating their ability to score runs efficiently. In contrast, the Giants’ offense ranks 14th, indicating they may struggle to keep pace against the Yankees' potent lineup. With a low Game Total of 7.5 runs, oddsmakers anticipate a tight contest, suggesting that the Yankees’ high-powered offense could make the difference in a close game.

Quick Takes San Francisco Giants:

Logan Webb's cut-fastball rate has jumped by 9.8% from last year to this one (2.6% to 12.4%) .

• Because cutters are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.

Extreme flyball hitters like Wilmer Flores are generally less successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Carlos Rodon.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Matt Chapman hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.8% — 96th percentile) and will be challenged by baseball's 6th-deepest CF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes New York Yankees:

Carlos Rodon's 2247-rpm spin rate on his fastball this year is a sizeable 137-rpm decrease from last year's 2384-rpm figure.

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose spin rate worsens will likely see worsened results as well.

Over the past week, Cody Bellinger's Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 8% down to 0%.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

The underlying talent of the New York Yankees projected offense today (.332 projected wOBA via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) figures to be considerably weaker than their .361 wOBA this year.

• Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today's lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren't accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Game Trends

• The New York Yankees have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 5 of their last 7 games at home (+3.25 Units / 44% ROI)
• Ben Rice has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 6 games at home (+16.10 Units / 268% ROI)

San Francisco Giants vs New York Yankees Prediction

Predicted Final Score: San Francisco Giants 4.6, New York Yankees 3.82

• Date: April 13, 2025
• Venue: Yankee Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Logan Webb - Giants
  • Carlos Rodon - Yankees

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