San Francisco Giants vs Minnesota Twins Prediction – 5/9/2025

On May 9, 2025, the Minnesota Twins will host the San Francisco Giants at Target Field for the first game of their interleague series. The Twins enter this matchup with a record of 18-20, struggling to find consistency this season. Meanwhile, the Giants, boasting a strong 24-14 record, are coming off a solid performance that has them positioned well in the standings.

The matchup features two right-handed pitchers: Chris Paddack for the Twins and Jordan Hicks for the Giants. Paddack, currently ranked 171st among starting pitchers in MLB according to advanced-stat Power Rankings, has had a rough start to the year with a 0-3 record and an ERA of 5.57. However, projections suggest he may have been unlucky, as his xERA of 5.01 indicates potential for improvement. Paddack is expected to pitch around 5.1 innings while allowing approximately 2.7 earned runs, but his projections also suggest he might struggle with hits and walks.

On the other hand, Jordan Hicks, ranked 49th among starting pitchers, has a 1-3 record with a higher ERA of 6.03. Like Paddack, Hicks has also seen some misfortune, with a projected xFIP of 3.70, indicating he could be due for better results. His projections are similarly modest, anticipating 5.2 innings pitched with 2.5 earned runs allowed.

Offensively, the Twins rank 19th in MLB, with a particularly poor showing in team batting average (22nd) and home runs (21st). In contrast, the Giants sit at an average 15th in overall offense, bolstered by their 15th ranking in home runs.

With a Game Total set at 9.0 runs and the Twins having a high implied team total of 4.61 runs, this game could be competitive. The Twins' bullpen ranks 11th, while the Giants' bullpen is rated 2nd, suggesting that Minnesota will need to capitalize on their scoring opportunities if they hope to take down a Giants team that has been solid all season.

Quick Takes San Francisco Giants:

Jordan Hicks's 96.4-mph velocity on his fastball this year is a notable 2.1-mph increase from last season's 94.3-mph figure.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher who improves his velocity will likely see improved results.

Typically, hitters like Wilmer Flores who hit a lot of groundballs tend to perform worse when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of groundballs such as Chris Paddack.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the San Francisco Giants' bullpen ranks as the 2nd-best out of all teams in Major League Baseball.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Quick Takes Minnesota Twins:

Given that groundball hitters perform worse against groundball pitchers, Chris Paddack (34% GB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) is well-situated in today's game with 5 GB hitters in the opposing club's projected batting order.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Ryan Jeffers is penciled in 3rd in the lineup in this matchup, which would be an upgrade from his 58% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this season.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

Kody Clemens hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.6% — 81st percentile) but may find it hard to clear MLB's 10th-deepest CF fences today.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Minnesota Twins have hit the Run Line in 8 of their last 9 games at home (+8.75 Units / 93% ROI)
• The San Francisco Giants have hit the Game Total Over in 16 of their last 27 games (+5.05 Units / 17% ROI)
• Trevor Larnach has hit the Hits Over in 18 of his last 25 games at home (+6.50 Units / 15% ROI)

San Francisco Giants vs Minnesota Twins Prediction

Predicted Final Score: San Francisco Giants 4.95, Minnesota Twins 4.35

• Date: May 9, 2025
• Venue: Target Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Jordan Hicks - Giants
  • Chris Paddack - Twins

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