Los Angeles Dodgers vs New York Mets Pick, Prediction & Same Game Parlay – 7/25/2026

The Los Angeles Dodgers roll into Queens for the middle game of this weekend set carrying an 11-game cushion in the National League West and the sport’s best on-base percentage, while the New York Mets try to stop the bleeding after dropping four straight at Citi Field. Saturday’s pitching pairing is an interesting one, as Yoshinobu Yamamoto has been nearly unhittable since mid-May, and he draws a Mets lineup that ranks near the bottom of the league in almost every meaningful offensive category. New York’s Nolan McLean has also turned into one of the better arms in the National League, but even a strong start from him may not be enough to offset the difference in the two rosters around him.

Los Angeles Dodgers vs New York Mets Prediction

• Pick: Dodgers Moneyline (-168)
• Confidence: 4 out of 5

Los Angeles Dodgers vs New York Mets Model Projection

• Score Projection: Dodgers 6, Mets 2
• Win Probability: Dodgers 63%, Mets 37%

Everything here points toward Los Angeles. The Dodgers own a top mark in team OBP at .341, rank third in the majors at 5.2 runs per game, and get a starter in Yamamoto who has posted a 2.20 ERA over his last 10 outings, including a complete game two starts ago against the Yankees. New York, by comparison, is scoring just 4.0 runs per game, sits in the bottom third of the league in wOBA and wRC+, and enters Saturday on a four-game home losing skid.

McLean has been a legitimate bright spot for the Mets with a 3.34 ERA and 135 strikeouts across 20 starts, and he’ll keep this from turning into a rout, but the supporting cast behind him just doesn’t have the firepower to consistently pressure a Dodgers pitching staff that has been one of the best in baseball this season.

Juan Soto’s calf issue adds another layer of uncertainty for New York. Even at less than 100%, he remains the one hitter capable of changing a game by himself, but if he’s limited or held out, the Mets lineup loses its only true middle-of-the-order threat. With the Dodgers 35-19 on the road and having already taken four straight from New York this season, the price at -165 is fair value for a team playing this much better baseball right now.

Game Snapshot

• Matchup: Los Angeles Dodgers vs New York Mets
• Date & Time: Saturday, July 25, 2026, 7:15 p.m. ET
• Starting Pitchers: Yoshinobu Yamamoto (10-6, 2.78 ERA) vs. Nolan McLean (7-6, 3.34 ERA)
• Stadium: Citi Field, Queens, New York
• Broadcast: FOX

Los Angeles Dodgers vs New York Mets Same Game Parlay

• Leg 1: Dodgers Moneyline (-168)
• Leg 2: Yoshinobu Yamamoto Over 6.5 Strikeouts (-101)
• Leg 3: Kyle Tucker Over 1.5 Total Bases (+173)

Total Parlay Odds: +525

This parlay leans on the same read that supports the straight pick. Yamamoto has cleared 6.5 strikeouts in six of his last 10 starts and faces a Mets lineup that ranks 29th in the league in wOBA, giving him plenty of soft contact and swing-and-miss opportunities. Tucker has cooled off recently, but he’s mashed left-handed and right-handed pitching alike against this Mets staff in the past and gets a favorable park to work with at Citi Field. Combine that with a Dodgers offense that leads the league in OBP, and the moneyline leg should have plenty of margin for error, even if the score doesn’t get out of hand.

Los Angeles Dodgers vs New York Mets Home Run Prop

Shohei Ohtani to Hit a Home Run: +276

Ohtani gives bettors real value against a right-hander. McLean has shown he can miss bats, but he’s also prone to the long ball against hitters who can turn around velocity in the top part of the zone, and Ohtani remains one of the most dangerous power threats in the sport even during stretches when his overall numbers cool off. With the Dodgers already sitting on 135 team home runs this season, a top-of-the-order threat like Ohtani at nearly 3/1 odds is a reasonable swing for a single-game prop.

Betting Trends & H2H

• Season series: Dodgers lead 4-0 over the Mets in 2026 head-to-head play.
• Dodgers road record: 35-19
• Mets home record: 21-29
• The under has hit in 3 of the 4 games these teams have played this season.

Stat Comparison

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Jay Sanin

Jay Sanin is the GM and Head of Sports at ATS.io. He has been writing about sports gambling since 2013, handicapping tens of thousands of sporting events. He plays sides and totals aggressively across most sports and is more selective in player prop markets. He does his own modeling across most sports, and his family is jealous of how much time he spends on his precious spreadsheets.

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