San Francisco Giants vs Boston Red Sox Prediction, Picks 5/1/2024

San Francisco Giants vs Boston Red Sox Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: May 1, 2024
• Venue: Fenway Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Daulton Jefferies - Giants
  • Kutter Crawford - Red Sox
• Run Line: Giants -1.5 155, Red Sox 1.5 -175
• Money Line: Giants -110, Red Sox -110
• Total (Over/Under): 8.5

San Francisco Giants vs Boston Red Sox Win Probabilities

Implied Win %:

• San Francisco Giants - 50%
• Boston Red Sox - 50%

Projected Win %:

• San Francisco Giants - 47.64%
• Boston Red Sox - 52.36%

San Francisco Giants vs Boston Red Sox Game Preview & Prediction

On May 1, 2024, the Boston Red Sox will take on the San Francisco Giants at Fenway Park. This interleague matchup promises an exciting clash between two teams with different season records. The Red Sox, currently boasting a 17-13 record, are having a good season, while the Giants are struggling with a below-average 14-16 record.

The Red Sox will hand the ball to right-handed pitcher Kutter Crawford, who has been impressive this season. According to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, Crawford is considered the #58 best starting pitcher in MLB out of approximately 350 pitchers, indicating his strong performance. He has started six games, with a Win/Loss record of 1-1 and an excellent ERA of 1.35. However, his 3.91 xFIP suggests that he may have been lucky and could see a decline in performance going forward.

Opposing Crawford on the mound will be right-handed pitcher Daulton Jefferies for the Giants. Jefferies has struggled this season, with an ERA of 22.50. However, his 5.71 xFIP indicates that he has been unlucky, and there is potential for improvement in his performance.

In terms of offense, the Red Sox have been strong this season, ranking as the #8 best team in MLB. They excel in team batting average, ranking #3, but have an average ranking in home runs and stolen bases. On the other hand, the Giants have an average offense, ranking #18 in MLB. Their team batting average ranks #21, while their performance in home runs and stolen bases is average and very poor, respectively.

Based on the current odds, the Red Sox have an average implied team total of 4.25 runs, while the Giants have the same average implied team total. THE BAT X projects the Red Sox to score an average of 4.61 runs, while the Giants are projected to score 4.50 runs in this game.

With a projected win probability of 54% according to THE BAT X, the Red Sox are favored in this matchup, although the betting markets perceive it as a close game with both teams having an implied win probability of 50%.

Quick Takes San Francisco Giants:

Daulton Jefferies conceded a whopping 5 earned runs in his last game started.

• A pitcher who struggled in his last outing may have something wrong that affects him in his next outing as well.

Patrick Bailey's speed has declined this year. His 26.17 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last year sits at 25.45 ft/sec now.

• Slow players tend to get fewer hits because they can't beat out groundballs, fewer extra base hits, and fewer stolen bases.

Mike Yastrzemski pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (36.3% — 93rd percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards MLB's 3rd-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Boston Red Sox:

Kutter Crawford is an extreme flyball pitcher (40.1% FB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) and is stuck pitching in the #10 HR venue among all major league parks in this matchup.

• This pitcher's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Tyler O'Neill has been lucky this year, compiling a .463 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .341 — a .122 difference.

• Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.

The Boston Red Sox have 4 bats in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Tyler O'Neill, Wilyer Abreu, Connor Wong, Bobby Dalbec).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Game Trends

• The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Under in 16 of their last 23 games (+8.25 Units / 32% ROI)
• The San Francisco Giants have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 73 of their last 115 games (+27.02 Units / 20% ROI)
• Kutter Crawford has only hit the Earned Runs Over in 1 of his last 4 games (-2.10 Units / -50% ROI)

Giants vs Red Sox Prediction: Giants 4.37 - Red Sox 4.37

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