San Francisco Giants at Tampa Bay Rays Pick & Prediction – 4/12/2024

San Francisco Giants vs Tampa Bay Rays Overview

• Date: April 12, 2024
• Venue: Tropicana Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Keaton Winn - Giants
  • Tyler Alexander - Rays
• Run Line: Giants -1.5 155, Rays 1.5 -175
• Money Line: Giants -110, Rays -110
• Total (Over/Under):8.5 -110

San Francisco Giants vs Tampa Bay Rays Win Probabilities

Implied Win %:

• San Francisco Giants - 50%
• Tampa Bay Rays - 50%

Projected Win %:

• San Francisco Giants - 56.55%
• Tampa Bay Rays - 43.45%

San Francisco Giants vs Tampa Bay Rays Game Preview & Prediction

The Tampa Bay Rays will host the San Francisco Giants in an exciting interleague matchup on April 12, 2024, at Tropicana Field. The Rays, with a record of 7-6, are having an above-average season, while the Giants, with a record of 5-8, are struggling.

The Rays are projected to start left-handed pitcher Tyler Alexander, who has had a tough start to the season with an ERA of 8.68. However, his xFIP suggests that he has been unlucky and should perform better going forward. On the other hand, the Giants will start right-handed pitcher Keaton Winn, who has also struggled with a 5.73 ERA.

The Rays have a solid offense, ranking 16th in MLB, with a good team batting average and a great ranking in home runs and stolen bases. Their best hitter this season has been Jose Siri, who has been consistent at the plate. In their last game, they defeated the Angels 4-2, showing their ability to compete against strong opponents.

The Giants, on the other hand, have a struggling offense, ranking 22nd in MLB, with a low team batting average and a very low ranking in stolen bases. Their best hitter this season has been Michael Conforto, who has shown power and consistency. In their last game, they dominated the Nationals with a 7-1 victory, proving their potential to compete.

Both teams have different strengths and weaknesses. Alexander, a low-strikeout pitcher, will face a high-strikeout Giants offense, giving him an advantage. Meanwhile, Winn, a high-groundball pitcher, will face a powerful Rays offense, which might struggle to capitalize on their home-run potential.

According to THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, the Giants are projected to have a 59% win probability, while the betting market suggests a closer game with a 50% implied win probability for both teams. This indicates that there may be value in betting on the Giants.

Quick Takes San Francisco Giants:

Typically, hitters like Wilmer Flores who hit a lot of flyballs are generally less successful when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of flyballs such as Tyler Alexander.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Austin Slater has a 97th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (39.9%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards the game's 5th-shallowest RF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Tampa Bay Rays:

The Tampa Bay Rays infield defense grades out as the 5th-strongest among every team playing today.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.

Curtis Mead has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this season (86% of the time), but he is projected to hit 5th in the lineup today.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

Game Trends

• The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Game Total Over in 43 of their last 72 games at home (+13.15 Units / 16% ROI)
• The San Francisco Giants have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 76 of their last 123 games (+24.12 Units / 16% ROI)

Final Score Prediction: San Francisco Giants 4.74 vs Tampa Bay Rays 3.91

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.