San Francisco Giants at Pittsburgh Pirates Pick For 5/22/2024

San Francisco Giants vs Pittsburgh Pirates Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: May 22, 2024
• Venue: PNC Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Blake Snell - Giants
  • Jared Jones - Pirates

Betting Odds

San Francisco Giants vs Pittsburgh Pirates Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

San Francisco Giants vs Pittsburgh Pirates Betting Preview

The Pittsburgh Pirates are scheduled to face off against the San Francisco Giants on May 22, 2024, at PNC Park. As the home team, the Pirates will have the advantage of playing on familiar turf. This National League matchup between the Pirates and the Giants is expected to be an intriguing game.

Both teams are currently having below-average seasons, with identical records of 23-26. The Pirates' offense ranks as the 27th best in MLB, while the Giants' offense ranks slightly better at 14th. Despite these rankings, both teams have struggled in certain areas, such as batting average and home runs.

The Pirates are projected to start right-handed pitcher Jared Jones, who holds a record of 3-4 this season. Jones has been performing well, with an excellent ERA of 2.89. However, his 3.44 FIP suggests that he has been lucky and may not perform as strongly in the future. On the other hand, the Giants are expected to start left-handed pitcher Blake Snell, who has struggled this season with an ERA of 11.57. However, his 3.70 xFIP indicates that he has been unlucky and may see improvement going forward.

Jones is known for his high strikeout rate, which may give him an advantage against the Giants' offense, which ranks fourth in most strikeouts in MLB. The Giants' bullpen is considered the second best in MLB, according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, while the Pirates' bullpen ranks sixth.

According to the current odds, the Pirates have an average implied team total of 3.84 runs, while the Giants have a slightly lower implied team total of 3.66 runs. This suggests that the game is expected to be a close one.

Considering the projections and the matchup, the Pirates may have a slight advantage with Jones on the mound. However, the Giants' bullpen strength and the Pirates' struggling offense could also play a significant role in the outcome. Ultimately, this game could go either way, and baseball fans can expect an exciting contest between these two teams.

Quick Takes San Francisco Giants:

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) expects Blake Snell to be limited in this game, projecting a maximum of 75 pitches.

• A pitcher who is on a pitch count is likely to be pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.

Mike Yastrzemski has a good chance to have the upper hand against every reliever for the whole game, since the bullpen of the Pittsburgh Pirates only has 1 same-handed RP.

• Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the San Francisco Giants' bullpen ranks as the 2nd-best out of all teams in Major League Baseball.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Quick Takes Pittsburgh Pirates:

With 6 hitters who share his handedness in the opposing team's projected offense, Jared Jones figures to benefit from having the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in this matchup.

• Right-handed pitchers perform better against right-handed hitters (and the same for lefties). Having this advantage against a lot of opposing hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Bryan Reynolds has had bad variance on his side thus far when it comes to his home runs this year; his 14.0 HR per 600 plate appearances mark is considerably lower than his 38.2 Expected HR/600, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

• xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.

Edward Olivares pulls a lot of his flyballs (35.9% — 91st percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of MLB's 9th-deepest LF fences today.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 23 of their last 38 games (+8.35 Units / 19% ROI)
• The San Francisco Giants have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 11 of their last 14 games (+8.05 Units / 48% ROI)
• Heliot Ramos has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 9 of his last 11 games (+7.90 Units / 61% ROI)

San Francisco Giants vs Pittsburgh Pirates Prediction

Final Score: San Francisco Giants 4.06 vs Pittsburgh Pirates 3.65

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