San Diego Padres vs Pittsburgh Pirates Prediction – 5/4/2025

San Diego Padres vs Pittsburgh Pirates Betting Preview

As the Pittsburgh Pirates prepare to face the San Diego Padres on May 4, 2025, the stakes may feel slightly lower for the Pirates, who currently sit at 12-22 this season. It's been a tough year for Pittsburgh, and their last matchup against San Diego was a frustrating loss, compounding their struggles. In contrast, the Padres are enjoying a solid campaign at 21-11, showcasing their strength in the National League.

The pitching matchup favors the Padres, as Andrew Heaney takes the mound for the Pirates. Despite being ranked as the 224th best starter in MLB, Heaney has managed a commendable 2.50 ERA this season, although his 3.68 xFIP suggests he may not maintain this level of performance. Heaney's averages indicate he could struggle today—projecting 2.9 earned runs and a concerning number of hits given up. Meanwhile, the Padres will counter with Stephen Kolek, who, while not without his own issues, is still better positioned to limit the Pirates' struggling offense.

Pittsburgh's offense ranks 25th in MLB, severely lacking in power, as evidenced by their ranking of 28th in home runs. The Pirates do excel in stolen bases, but that may not be enough against a Padres defense that ranks 2nd in bullpen performance. The projections suggest Pittsburgh’s lineup simply doesn't match up well against Kolek, who is expected to pitch effectively.

Betting markets currently have both teams at -110 on the moneyline, indicating a close contest. However, with the Padres performing strongly this season and the Pirates mired in their struggles, the odds might more accurately reflect a potential advantage for San Diego as they look to extend their lead in the standings.

Quick Takes San Diego Padres:

Throwing 76.3 adjusted pitches per start this year on average, Stephen Kolek places him the 8th percentile.

• Pitchers who average more pitches per game are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the San Diego Padres' bullpen grades out as the 2nd-best among all teams in Major League Baseball.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Quick Takes Pittsburgh Pirates:

Andrew Heaney's four-seam fastball percentage has decreased by 6.3% from last season to this one (49.9% to 43.6%) .

• Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball lessoften will likely be more effective than he used to be.

Enmanuel Valdez is an extreme flyball hitter and squares off against the strong outfield defense of San Diego (#2-best of all teams on the slate today).

• This player's skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team's defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

In today's game, Joey Bart is at a disadvantage facing the league's 11th-deepest LF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the pull field at a 33.9% rate (81st percentile).

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 6 of their last 9 games at home (+3.10 Units / 28% ROI)
• The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 19 of their last 31 games (+5.27 Units / 14% ROI)
• Enmanuel Valdez has hit the Hits Over in 11 of his last 15 games at home (+5.35 Units / 23% ROI)

San Diego Padres vs Pittsburgh Pirates Prediction

Predicted Final Score: San Diego Padres 5.08, Pittsburgh Pirates 4.6

• Date: May 4, 2025
• Venue: PNC Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Stephen Kolek - Padres
  • Andrew Heaney - Pirates

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