San Diego Padres vs Philadelphia Phillies Pick & Preview – 6/19/2024

San Diego Padres vs Philadelphia Phillies Details

• Date: June 19, 2024
• Venue: Citizens Bank Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Matt Waldron - Padres
  • Ranger Suarez - Phillies

Betting Odds

San Diego Padres vs Philadelphia Phillies Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

San Diego Padres vs Philadelphia Phillies Betting Preview

The Philadelphia Phillies and San Diego Padres are set to square off on June 19, 2024, at Citizens Bank Park. This National League matchup features two teams with contrasting seasons so far. The Phillies are having an impressive campaign with a 49-24 record, while the Padres are struggling with a 37-40 mark. This contest marks the third game of their current series.

The Phillies will send left-handed ace Ranger Suarez to the mound. Suarez has been outstanding this season, boasting a 10-1 record with an exceptional 1.77 ERA. While his 2.73 xFIP, an advanced stat indicating underlying performance, suggests he might experience some regression, he remains one of the top pitchers in the league, ranked 23rd according to THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system.

On the Padres' side, Matt Waldron gets the start. The right-hander has a 4-6 record with a solid 3.66 ERA, but his advanced metrics and projections peg him as a below-average MLB pitcher. Waldron's high flyball rate (38% FB%) could spell trouble against a powerful Phillies lineup that ranks 6th in home runs. The Phillies' offense is potent, ranking 4th overall in the league, with strong showings in batting average (3rd) and stolen bases (4th).

The Padres, while below average overall this season, still have strengths in their offense, particularly with a league-best team batting average. However, their middle-of-the-pack power numbers (12th in home runs) could be a disadvantage against the Phillies' 3rd-ranked bullpen.

Kyle Schwarber has been a standout for the Phillies, lighting up the last week with 11 hits, 10 RBIs, and 4 home runs, posting a scorching .407 batting average and a 1.455 OPS. On the Padres' side, Jackson Merrill has been their best hitter over the last 7 games, though his .263 average over that span pales in comparison to Schwarber's output.

The Phillies enter this game as favorites with a -160 moneyline, suggesting a 59% implied win probability. While Suarez's projections indicate he might allow more hits and runs than his ERA suggests, the overall strength of the Phillies' lineup and bullpen gives them a decided edge. Keep an eye on how the Padres handle Suarez’s strikeout ability, as their low strikeout rate could tilt the matchup slightly in their favor. However, the Phillies' higher implied team total of 4.68 runs reflects their offensive firepower and favorable outlook for this game.

Quick Takes San Diego Padres:

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects that Matt Waldron will give up an average of 3.06 earned runs in this outing.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, defense, and more.

Fernando Tatis Jr. has seen a sizeable increase in his exit velocity in recent games; just compare his 96.6-mph average in the last two weeks' worth of games to his seasonal 92.6-mph average.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the San Diego Padres' bullpen profiles as the 9th-best among all teams in the majors.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Quick Takes Philadelphia Phillies:

Considering the 1.83 disparity between Ranger Suarez's 1.77 ERA and his 3.60 estimated true talent ERA (via the leading projection system, THE BAT), it's safe to say he's been one of the most fortunate pitchers in MLB this year and figures to see negative regression going forward.

• Pitchers that are overperforming should be expected to pitch worse going forward, which can create value if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.

In terms of his home runs, Bryce Harper has been very fortunate this year. His 30.0 HR per 600 plate appearances figure has been a good deal higher than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected HR/600 at 18.0.

• xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.

Brandon Marsh has a 91st percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.7%) and has the good fortune of hitting them in the direction of the game's 10th-shallowest LF fences today.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 38 of their last 54 games (+19.50 Units / 28% ROI)
• The San Diego Padres have hit the Run Line in 23 of their last 37 away games (+10.60 Units / 22% ROI)
• Jake Cronenworth has hit the Runs Under in 30 of his last 38 games (+17.75 Units / 28% ROI)

San Diego Padres vs Philadelphia Phillies Prediction

Final Score: San Diego Padres 4.3 vs Philadelphia Phillies 5.05

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