San Diego Padres vs New York Yankees Pick – 5/7/2025

The New York Yankees host the San Diego Padres at Yankee Stadium on May 7, 2025, in what promises to be an intriguing interleague matchup. The Yankees, sitting at 20-16, are having a solid season, while the Padres, with a record of 23-12, are enjoying great success. The Yankees are coming off an impressive win over the Padres in their last outing, further fueling their momentum as they look to build on that performance.

On the mound for the Yankees is Max Fried, who has been nothing short of exceptional this season. With a flawless 6-0 record and a minuscule ERA of 1.01, Fried stands as the 6th best starting pitcher in MLB, according to advanced-stat Power Rankings. However, his xFIP of 3.74 suggests he might have had some luck on his side and could face tougher times ahead. Fried is projected to pitch 6.5 innings today, allowing 2.0 earned runs, which reflects his elite status.

The Padres counter with Dylan Cease, who has struggled this year, posting a 1-2 record and an ERA of 5.61. Ranked 32nd among starting pitchers, Cease has been marked by high walk rates and a propensity to give up fly balls, which aligns unfavorably against the Yankees' powerful offense. New York's bats rank 1st in MLB, leading the league with 60 home runs, making this matchup particularly daunting for Cease.

The Yankees are favored in the betting line with a moneyline of -175 and an implied team total of 4.50 runs, while the Padres trail with a +150 moneyline and a low implied total of 3.50 runs. Expect New York’s explosive offense to capitalize on Cease's vulnerabilities, setting the stage for a potentially high-scoring game.

Quick Takes San Diego Padres:

Dylan Cease's four-seamer usage has fallen by 7.3% from last season to this one (43.5% to 36.2%) .

• Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball lessoften will likely be more effective than he used to be.

Jose Iglesias's average exit velocity has fallen off recently; his 82.7-mph seasonal figure has fallen to 71.5-mph in the past week.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

The San Diego Padres (18.8 K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) are forecasted to have the 2nd-least strikeout-heavy set of batters of the day.

• THE BAT X analyzes each player in today's specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Quick Takes New York Yankees:

Max Fried was rolling in his previous game started and conceded 2 ER.

• A pitcher who was strong in his last outing may be sharp once again in his next outing.

Extreme flyball batters like Aaron Judge tend to be less successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Dylan Cease.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

New York Yankees bats as a group rank in baseball for power this year when using their 12% Barrel%.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Game Trends

• The New York Yankees have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 11 of their last 21 games (+3.65 Units / 12% ROI)
• The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 22 of their last 35 games (+7.07 Units / 17% ROI)
• Luis Arraez has hit the Singles Under in 6 of his last 9 away games (+6.20 Units / 69% ROI)

San Diego Padres vs New York Yankees Prediction

Predicted Final Score: San Diego Padres 3.65, New York Yankees 4.51

• Date: May 7, 2025
• Venue: Yankee Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Dylan Cease - Padres
  • Max Fried - Yankees

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