Padres vs Dodgers Game 5 Prediction, Odds & Picks – 10/11/2024

• Date: October 11, 2024
• Venue: Dodger Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Yu Darvish - Padres
  • Yoshinobu Yamamoto - Dodgers

Padres vs Dodgers Game 5 Betting Odds

San Diego Padres vs Los Angeles Dodgers Game 5 Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

San Diego Padres vs Los Angeles Dodgers Game 5 Betting Preview

As the Los Angeles Dodgers and San Diego Padres prepare to face off in a pivotal National League Division Series matchup on October 11, 2024, all eyes will be on the pitchers' mound in this series-deciding matchup. The Dodgers are sending their ace, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, to the mound. Yamamoto, ranked as the 12th-best starting pitcher in MLB according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X, has been a standout performer this season with a 3.00 ERA. His ability to limit walks, despite a projected below-average strikeout rate for this game, could be crucial against a Padres lineup that leads the league in batting average.

The Padres counter with Yu Darvish, who boasts a solid 3.31 ERA and is ranked 71st among starting pitchers. Despite his above-average season, Darvish's high flyball rate could be a concern against the Dodgers' powerful offense, which tops the league in home runs. The Dodgers' ability to capitalize on Darvish's flyballs could swing the game in their favor, especially given their status as the betting favorites with a moneyline of -140.

Offensively, the Dodgers and Padres are evenly matched, with the Dodgers holding the 1st spot in power rankings and the Padres at 6th. However, the Padres boast the top team batting average, which could prove advantageous against Yamamoto's high-strikeout style. Recent performances highlight the form of Mookie Betts and Fernando Tatis Jr., who have been instrumental for their respective teams over the past week.

With both bullpens ranked in the top 5, this game promises to be a tightly contested affair. The Dodgers' slight edge in pitching and power makes them the favorites, but the Padres' resilience and offensive prowess cannot be underestimated.

Quick Takes San Diego Padres:

The San Diego Padres outfield defense profiles as the strongest out of all the teams today.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.

Jackson Merrill hits many of his flyballs to center field (40.6% — 100th percentile) and is fortunate to face the league's 9th-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Los Angeles Dodgers:

Taking into account both his underlying tendencies and the matchup, Yoshinobu Yamamoto is projected to throw 77 pitches in this outing by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) system, which is the most on the slate today.

• Pitchers who throw a lot of pitches are more likely to go deeper into the game, record more outs, and generate more strikeouts.

Max Muncy is an extreme flyball hitter and faces the strong outfield defense of San Diego (#1-best on the slate today).

• This player's skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team's defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

The Los Angeles Dodgers projected batting order grades out as the strongest of the day in terms of overall offensive skill.

• A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Game Trends

• The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Game Total Over in 40 of their last 63 games (+20.20 Units / 29% ROI)
• The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 55 of their last 85 games (+18.90 Units / 16% ROI)
• Teoscar Hernandez has hit the Total Bases Over in 16 of his last 20 games (+13.55 Units / 53% ROI)

San Diego Padres vs Los Angeles Dodgers Game 5 Prediction

Final Score: San Diego Padres 4.38 vs Los Angeles Dodgers 5.24

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