San Diego Padres vs Detroit Tigers Prediction – 4/21/2025

San Diego Padres vs Detroit Tigers Betting Preview

The Detroit Tigers will host the San Diego Padres on April 21, 2025, in what promises to be an engaging interleague matchup. Both teams are enjoying strong seasons, with the Padres holding a 16-6 record and the Tigers at 13-9. The Tigers are currently in a bit of a tailspin, having lost their last game 4-3 to the Kansas City Royals on April 20. Meanwhile, the Padres are riding high after a narrow 3-2 victory over the Houston Astros.

In this contest, the Tigers are projected to start Keider Montero, a right-handed pitcher with a rocky start to the season. Montero's ERA stands at 9.00, reflecting his struggles, although his 2.46 xFIP suggests he may have been unlucky thus far. He’s allowed an average of 5.5 hits and 1.4 walks today, which could be concerning against a Padres offense ranked 4th in MLB. The projections indicate that Montero might struggle against a lineup that excels at putting the ball in play.

On the other side, the Padres will counter with Randy Vasquez, who has been effective with a 1.74 ERA this season, despite his 6.32 xFIP indicating potential regression. Vasquez’s ability to limit walks could be crucial against a Tigers offense that ranks 12th in MLB.

With the Tigers' bullpen ranked 3rd in MLB, they might have an edge late in the game, especially if they can keep it close early on. The current moneyline suggests the Tigers have a decent shot at winning, with an implied team total of 4.45 runs. While the Padres have a powerful offense, the matchup favors the Tigers if Montero can turn his season around.

Quick Takes San Diego Padres:

It may come as a surprise, but fastballs are generally a pitcher's least effective pitch. Randy Vasquez has relied on his secondary pitches 16.5% more often this season (72.4%) than he did last season (55.9%).

• A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.

Extreme groundball hitters like Jose Iglesias tend to perform better against extreme flyball pitchers like Keider Montero.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Manny Machado hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.7% — 96th percentile) and will have to hit them out towards MLB's 2nd-deepest CF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Detroit Tigers:

In his previous game started, Keider Montero was firing on all cylinders and put up 8 strikeouts.

• A pitcher who was strong in his last outing may be sharp once again in his next outing.

Colt Keith is projected to hit 6th in the lineup in today's game, which would be a downgrade from his 67% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this year.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

The Detroit Tigers (25.8% K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) are forecasted to have the most strikeout-heavy group of batters of all teams on the slate.

• THE BAT X analyzes each player in today's specific lineup to figure out which teams have the most inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Game Trends

• The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 13 of their last 19 games (+6.25 Units / 28% ROI)
• Xander Bogaerts has hit the Total Bases Over in 16 of his last 20 away games (+12.30 Units / 40% ROI)

San Diego Padres vs Detroit Tigers Prediction

Predicted Final Score: San Diego Padres 4.12, Detroit Tigers 4.27

• Date: April 21, 2025
• Venue: Comerica Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Randy Vasquez - Padres
  • Keider Montero - Tigers

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