San Diego Padres vs Colorado Rockies Pick – 5/10/2025

On May 10, 2025, the Colorado Rockies will host the San Diego Padres at Coors Field for the second game of their series. The Rockies are struggling this season with a record of 6-32, while the Padres are enjoying a strong campaign at 24-13. In their previous matchup, the Padres came out on top, further solidifying their position in the National League West.

The Rockies are projected to start Bradley Blalock, who has faced challenges this year, posting an 0-1 record with an ERA of 8.03 after two starts. Blalock's peripherals suggest he has been unlucky, but he's still considered one of the weaker pitchers in MLB, ranked 297th out of approximately 350. He projects to pitch around 4.3 innings and allow an average of 3.4 earned runs. Given the Rockies' 30th-ranked offense, which has struggled to generate consistent runs, they face an uphill battle.

On the other hand, the Padres will counter with Stephen Kolek, who has yet to allow a run this season in his lone start, boasting a 1-0 record and a 0.00 ERA. However, his 3.78 xFIP indicates he may not sustain this level of performance. Kolek's ability to pitch an average of 5.0 innings could be crucial, especially against a Rockies lineup that strikes out more than any other team in MLB.

The Rockies’ bullpen ranks 7th best in MLB, providing a glimmer of hope if they can keep the game close. However, with the Padres' offense sitting at 13th overall and an implied team total of 6.67 runs, they are favored to score heavily. The Game Total is set at 11.5 runs, indicating expectations for an offensive battle. With the Rockies as underdogs at +170, this matchup favors the Padres, who are projected to continue their strong play against a struggling Colorado team.

Quick Takes San Diego Padres:

Stephen Kolek will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against 6 opposing batters today.

• Right-handed pitchers perform better against right-handed hitters (and the same for lefties). Having this advantage against a lot of opposing hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.

The Colorado Rockies have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Jason Heyward has a strong chance of never facing a bullpen mismatch all game.

• Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.

The San Diego Padres (17.9 K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) are forecasted to have the least strikeout-heavy team of hitters on the slate today.

• THE BAT X analyzes each player in today's specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Quick Takes Colorado Rockies:

Bradley Blalock's 2026.8-rpm fastball spin rate since the start of last season ranks in the 9th percentile out of all starting pitchers.

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Extreme flyball bats like Mickey Moniak generally hit better against extreme groundball pitchers like Stephen Kolek.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

The Colorado Rockies bullpen profiles as the 8th-best in baseball, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Colorado Rockies have hit the Team Total Under in 19 of their last 31 games (+5.17 Units / 14% ROI)
• The San Diego Padres have hit the Run Line in 7 of their last 8 games (+6.45 Units / 58% ROI)
• Luis Arraez has hit the Singles Under in 13 of his last 25 away games (+6.25 Units / 23% ROI)

San Diego Padres vs Colorado Rockies Prediction

Predicted Final Score: San Diego Padres 6.8, Colorado Rockies 5.35

• Date: May 10, 2025
• Venue: Coors Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Stephen Kolek - Padres
  • Bradley Blalock - Rockies

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