San Diego Padres at Texas Rangers Best Bet – 7/3/2024

San Diego Padres vs Texas Rangers Details

• Date: July 3, 2024
• Venue: Globe Life Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Adam Mazur - Padres
  • Jon Gray - Rangers

Betting Odds

San Diego Padres vs Texas Rangers Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

San Diego Padres vs Texas Rangers Betting Preview

As the Texas Rangers and San Diego Padres gear up for their second game of the series on July 3, 2024, both teams find themselves in contrasting positions. The Rangers, with a 39-46 record, are enduring a below-average season. In contrast, the Padres boast a 46-43 record, performing above average and aiming to build on their success.

Jon Gray is set to take the mound for the Rangers. He's had a decent season with a 3.77 ERA over 14 starts, accompanied by a 3-4 win/loss record. However, his 4.56 xERA suggests he has been a bit fortunate, and his performance may regress. Gray also projects to pitch 5.7 innings, allowing 2.5 earned runs on average. Notably, he’ll face a Padres lineup that ranks 8th in MLB in both overall offense and home runs, and 2nd in batting average. This potent offense, led by Kyle Higashioka's recent hot streak (1.357 OPS over the last week), could pose a significant challenge.

On the other side, the Padres will start Adam Mazur, who has struggled mightily this season with an ERA of 7.25 and an unimpressive 1-2 win/loss record over five starts. Despite his poor numbers, his 6.52 xFIP suggests he may have been unlucky and could improve. Mazur's projections show 4.9 innings pitched and 2.4 earned runs allowed. However, facing a Rangers lineup that ranks 6th in lowest strikeouts, Mazur’s low strikeout rate (10.7 K%) could put him at a disadvantage.

The Rangers' offense ranks 21st overall, with middling performance in batting average (18th) and home runs (16th). But Nate Lowe has been a standout recently, hitting .400 with a 1.320 OPS over the last week, including four home runs and 12 RBIs. His hot bat could be crucial for the Rangers.

With the Rangers currently favored with a -150 moneyline and an implied win probability of 57%, bettors may find value considering the Padres' stronger offensive metrics and bullpen. However, the Rangers' confidence might be bolstered by Jon Gray's steadier season on the mound compared to Mazur’s struggles.

Quick Takes San Diego Padres:

Compared to the average hurler, Adam Mazur has been granted a shorter leash than the typical pitcher this year, tallying an -12.8 fewer adjusted pitches each outing.

• Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.

Jurickson Profar has been lucky this year, putting up a .383 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .313 — a .070 deviation.

• Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.

Projected catcher Kyle Higashioka projects as an elite pitch framer, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Pitch framing is a catcher's ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, "stealing" strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Quick Takes Texas Rangers:

Given the 0.4 discrepancy between Jon Gray's 3.77 ERA and his 3.37 FIP, it's safe to say he's been one of the unluckiest pitchers in baseball this year and figures to see positive regression in the future.

• Pitchers that are underperforming should be expected to pitch better going forward, which can create value if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date underperformance.

Marcus Semien has taken a step back with his Barrel% of late; his 6.3% seasonal rate has lowered to 0% in the past week's worth of games.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Texas Rangers bats as a unit rank in the cellar of Major League Baseball this year ( 7th-worst) as far as their 88.4-mph average exit velocity.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Game Trends

• The Texas Rangers have hit the Game Total Under in 41 of their last 69 games (+14.90 Units / 20% ROI)
• The San Diego Padres have hit the Run Line in 22 of their last 37 away games (+7.10 Units / 15% ROI)
• Ha-Seong Kim has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 26 games (+11.00 Units / 42% ROI)

San Diego Padres vs Texas Rangers Prediction

Final Score: San Diego Padres 4.16 vs Texas Rangers 4.18

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