Pittsburgh Pirates vs St. Louis Cardinals Prediction – 5/7/2025

On May 7, 2025, the St. Louis Cardinals will host the Pittsburgh Pirates at Busch Stadium for the third game in this series. The Cardinals sit at 18-19 this season, showing signs of an average performance, while the Pirates are struggling significantly at 12-25, marking them as one of the worst teams in the league. In their previous contest, St. Louis secured a close victory, which could potentially shift their momentum.

Sonny Gray is projected to take the mound for the Cardinals, and he has been one of the more reliable pitchers this season, with a record of 3-1 and a 4.12 ERA. Gray has shown a propensity for strikeouts, averaging 6.3 K's per outing, and he projects to allow only 2.2 earned runs today. His ability to generate fly balls (37% FB rate) could work in his favor against a Pirates lineup that has hit just 26 home runs this year, ranking them 4th least in MLB.

Conversely, Mitch Keller will start for the Pirates, but his performance has left much to be desired. With a 1-3 record and a 4.38 ERA, Keller also projects to allow 3.2 earned runs today, while his lower strikeout rate of 4.2 suggests he may struggle against a potent Cardinals offense ranked 9th overall and 2nd in batting average.

As for the betting lines, the Cardinals are favored at -170, implying a solid win probability as they look to capitalize on their opponent's struggles. This matchup favors St. Louis, especially given the disparity in offensive production and starting pitching effectiveness, positioning them well for another victory.

Quick Takes Pittsburgh Pirates:

Mitch Keller's fastball velocity has fallen 1.4 mph this year (93.1 mph) below where it was last year (94.5 mph).

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.

Oneil Cruz has made big improvements with his Barrel%, improving his 15.7% rate last season to 23.1% this year.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

The Pittsburgh Pirates (24.2% K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) project to have the 5th-most strikeout-heavy team of hitters on the slate.

• THE BAT X analyzes each player in today's specific lineup to figure out which teams have the most inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Quick Takes St. Louis Cardinals:

Sonny Gray is an extreme flyball pitcher (32% FB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) and has the benefit of pitching in the #27 HR venue among all major league parks in this matchup.

• This pitcher's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

This season, Willson Contreras has experienced a significant increase in his exit velocity on flyballs, now sitting at an average of 98.6 mph compared to last year's 95.1 mph mark.

• Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the St. Louis Cardinals' bullpen projects as the 8th-worst out of all the teams in Major League Baseball.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Moneyline in 11 of their last 17 games at home (+4.85 Units / 24% ROI)
• The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 23 of their last 36 games (+8.60 Units / 20% ROI)
• Brendan Donovan has hit the Singles Over in 17 of his last 25 games (+6.50 Units / 20% ROI)

Pittsburgh Pirates vs St. Louis Cardinals Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Pittsburgh Pirates 3.81, St. Louis Cardinals 4.58

• Date: May 7, 2025
• Venue: Busch Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Mitch Keller - Pirates
  • Sonny Gray - Cardinals

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