Pittsburgh Pirates vs Miami Marlins Prediction – 3/30/2025

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Miami Marlins Betting Preview

As the Miami Marlins host the Pittsburgh Pirates on March 30, 2025, the stakes are clear: both teams are looking to build momentum early in the season. The Marlins, currently sitting at 2-1, are enjoying a strong start, while the Pirates, at 1-2, are struggling to find their footing. In their last outing, the Marlins secured a victory with an impressive performance from their pitching staff, which could give them confidence heading into this matchup.

On the mound, the Marlins are projected to start Max Meyer, who has had a rough time according to the advanced-stat Power Rankings, where he ranks as the 225th best starting pitcher in MLB. Meyer’s projections suggest he’ll pitch about 4.7 innings, allowing 2.2 earned runs and striking out only 4.4 batters, which is below average. His tendency to allow 4.6 hits and 1.4 walks per game could be problematic if the Pirates capitalize on his weaknesses.

For Pittsburgh, Andrew Heaney takes the hill, also struggling in the rankings. Heaney is projected to throw 4.8 innings, allowing 2.5 earned runs while striking out 4.1 batters. With an average of 5.1 hits and 1.3 walks allowed, both pitchers might find themselves in a high-scoring affair.

With the Game Total set at 8.0 runs, betting markets see this as a close contest, with both teams having an implied team total of 4.00 runs. Despite their early-season records, the Marlins’ solid performance and the Pirates’ ongoing struggles could tilt the game in Miami’s favor, especially given the projections that suggest both starters are among the weaker options in the league. Overall, this matchup could be a pivotal moment for both teams as they look to establish their identities in the season ahead.

Quick Takes Pittsburgh Pirates:

Andrew Heaney's 91.5-mph fastball velocity since the start of last season ranks in the 13th percentile among all starters.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

The Miami Marlins have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Adam Frazier has a strong chance of never facing a bullpen mismatch all game.

• Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.

Tommy Pham hits many of his flyballs to center field (40% — 97th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards MLB's 6th-shallowest CF fences today.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Miami Marlins:

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) expects Max Meyer to be on a bit of a short leash in this game, projecting a maximum of 75 pitches.

• A pitcher who is on a pitch count is likely to be pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.

Hitters such as Derek Hill with extreme groundball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Andrew Heaney who skew towards the flyball end of the spectrum.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

The Miami Marlins projected lineup ranks as the 2nd-worst on the slate in terms of overall offensive ability.

• A pitcher who faces a weak opposing offense will be more likely to exceed his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Game Trends

• The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Over in 50 of their last 77 games at home (+27.05 Units / 32% ROI)
• The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Under in 40 of their last 73 away games (+6.40 Units / 8% ROI)
• Oneil Cruz has hit the RBIs Under in 7 of his last 8 games (+5.15 Units / 27% ROI)

• Date: March 30, 2025
• Venue: LoanDepot Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Andrew Heaney - Pirates
  • Max Meyer - Marlins

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