Pittsburgh Pirates vs Los Angeles Dodgers Prediction – 4/27/2025

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Los Angeles Dodgers Betting Preview

On April 27, 2025, the Los Angeles Dodgers host the Pittsburgh Pirates at Dodger Stadium, rekindling their rivalry in an important National League matchup. The Dodgers are soaring this season with a strong 17-10 record, while the Pirates have struggled with a disappointing 11-17 mark. In their previous game, Los Angeles dominated, showcasing their elite power with three home runs, pushing their total for the year to 43, the highest in MLB.

The Dodgers will send Tyler Glasnow to the mound, an elite right-handed pitcher ranked 11th among approximately 350 pitchers, with a solid 1-0 record and a commendable ERA of 3.71. Glasnow's projections indicate he is likely to pitch around 5.9 innings, allowing 1.9 earned runs and striking out 7.7 batters—a combination that bodes well against a Pirates lineup that ranks 5th in MLB for strikeouts.

Conversely, Bailey Falter will take the hill for Pittsburgh. Although he carries a 5.19 ERA and a less favorable 1-2 record, projections suggest he might perform slightly better today than in past outings, yet he remains vulnerable to the Dodgers' power hitters. Given Los Angeles ranks 8th in overall offensive effectiveness, and 2nd in home runs, they might make quick work of Falter, who has a high fly-ball rate.

Overall, the Dodgers hold considerable advantages on both sides of the ball, supported by a robust bullpen ranked 4th in MLB. With Pittsburgh’s 28th-ranked offense, the Dodgers are poised to capitalize on this matchup, making them a strong betting favorite in this game.

Quick Takes Pittsburgh Pirates:

Bailey Falter has gone to his sinker 6.9% more often this season (21.1%) than he did last year (14.2%).

• Sinkers are the easiest pitches to hit and generate the fewest strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his sinker more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.

In the past 7 days, Joey Bart's Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 12.2% down to 0%.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Pittsburgh Pirates' bullpen profiles as the 7th-worst out of all the teams in the majors.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Quick Takes Los Angeles Dodgers:

Tyler Glasnow's 94.5-mph velocity on his fastball this season is a notable 1.9-mph decrease from last year's 96.4-mph figure.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.

Shohei Ohtani's average exit velocity has dropped off lately; his 93.9-mph seasonal EV has fallen off to 81.6-mph in the last week.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Mookie Betts hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.6% — 95th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards the game's 9th-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Team Total Under in 6 of their last 10 games at home (+1.15 Units / 10% ROI)
• The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Under in 15 of their last 27 games (+3.00 Units / 10% ROI)
• Freddie Freeman has hit the Singles Under in 17 of his last 25 games (+8.20 Units / 29% ROI)

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Los Angeles Dodgers Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Pittsburgh Pirates 3.53, Los Angeles Dodgers 5.65

• Date: April 27, 2025
• Venue: Dodger Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Bailey Falter - Pirates
  • Tyler Glasnow - Dodgers

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