Pittsburgh Pirates vs Los Angeles Dodgers Pick – 4/25/2025

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Los Angeles Dodgers Betting Preview

On April 25, 2025, the Los Angeles Dodgers will host the Pittsburgh Pirates at Dodger Stadium in a National League matchup. The Dodgers, at 16-9, are enjoying a strong season, while the Pirates sit at 10-16 and have struggled significantly. This game marks the first in a series between these two teams.

Both teams lost their last time out, but the Pirates have faced difficulties recently, including a lackluster offense that ranks as the 27th best in MLB. The Dodgers' offense, while ranking 7th overall, has been particularly potent in terms of home runs, sitting 2nd with 41 long balls this season. This power could be crucial against the Pirates, whose pitching staff has not been able to contain strong lineups effectively.

Projected starters for this game are Yoshinobu Yamamoto for the Dodgers and Paul Skenes for the Pirates. Yamamoto, currently ranked as the 3rd best starting pitcher in MLB, boasts an impressive 0.93 ERA and a high strikeout rate of 35.2%. He projects to pitch 6.0 innings while allowing just 1.8 earned runs. Conversely, Skenes, while also elite at 1st in MLB, has been slightly unlucky this season, with a 2.87 ERA and a projection of 2.1 earned runs over 5.6 innings.

With the Dodgers favored at -200 on the moneyline, the projections suggest they should be able to capitalize on the Pirates' weaknesses, especially given the Pirates' high strikeout rate. The Game Total is set low at 7.0 runs, indicating expectations for a potentially tight contest. Overall, this matchup favors the Dodgers significantly, as they look to build on their strong start against a struggling Pirates team.

Quick Takes Pittsburgh Pirates:

Paul Skenes is an extreme groundball pitcher (49% GB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT), which should make him somewhat immune to the dangers of pitching in Dodger Stadium — the #5 HR venue in MLB — in this matchup.

• This pitcher's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-expected performance.

Oneil Cruz has seen a big improvement in his exit velocity of late; just compare his 98.2-mph average over the last two weeks to his seasonal 94-mph EV.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

The Pittsburgh Pirates bullpen ranks as the 9th-worst in MLB, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Quick Takes Los Angeles Dodgers:

Yoshinobu Yamamoto's change-up usage has spiked by 6.2% from last year to this one (24.1% to 30.3%) .

• Because change-ups are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.

Max Muncy is an extreme flyball batter and squares off against the weak outfield defense of Pittsburgh (#3-worst on the slate).

• This player's skill set matches up well with the opposing team's defensive weakness, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Max Muncy pulls a lot of his flyballs (39.5% — 98th percentile) but may find it hard to clear the league's 8th-deepest RF fences today.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Moneyline in 8 of their last 10 games at home (+3.95 Units / 17% ROI)
• The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Under in 8 of their last 10 away games (+7.00 Units / 64% ROI)
• Oneil Cruz has hit the Total Bases Over in 7 of his last 9 games (+6.05 Units / 58% ROI)

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Los Angeles Dodgers Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Pittsburgh Pirates 3.21, Los Angeles Dodgers 4.34

• Date: April 25, 2025
• Venue: Dodger Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Paul Skenes - Pirates
  • Yoshinobu Yamamoto - Dodgers

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.