Pittsburgh Pirates vs Los Angeles Angels Prediction – 4/24/2025

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Los Angeles Angels Betting Preview

The Los Angeles Angels host the Pittsburgh Pirates on April 24, 2025, in what has become a crucial series for both teams as they aim to improve their disappointing seasons. The Angels currently sit with an 11-12 record, while the Pirates are struggling at 10-15. In their last matchup, the Pirates managed to secure a win, which could provide a much-needed boost as they face the Angels for the third game of the series.

Tyler Anderson is projected to take the mound for the Angels. Despite being ranked as the 161st best starting pitcher in MLB, his performance has been solid so far, boasting an excellent ERA of 2.08. However, his 5.10 xFIP suggests he may have been a bit lucky, indicating a potential for regression. Anderson's high flyball rate (50% FB) could play to his advantage against a Pirates lineup that has struggled to generate power, ranking 25th in home runs this season.

On the other side, Carmen Mlodzinski is expected to start for the Pirates. With a troubling ERA of 7.41 and a 1-3 record, he has struggled significantly this season. His high groundball tendency (50% GB) may not be effective against an Angels offense that ranks 5th in home runs, as they could capitalize on his inability to keep the ball in the park. Additionally, Mlodzinski's control issues, reflected in his 9.8% walk rate, could spell trouble against an Angels lineup that rarely walks.

The Angels are favored with a moneyline of -140, reflecting a high implied team total of 4.54 runs. With both teams' offenses struggling overall, the game total is set at an average 8.5 runs, indicating a potentially low-scoring affair. However, given the Angels' stronger bullpen, ranked 5th in MLB, they may have the edge in this matchup.

Quick Takes Pittsburgh Pirates:

Carmen Mlodzinski will have the handedness advantage against 7 opposing bats in this game... and will be extra-advantaged due to his large platoon split.

• Right-handed pitchers perform better against right-handed hitters (and the same for lefties). Having this advantage against a lot of opposing hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Ke'Bryan Hayes has negatively regressed with his Barrel% lately; his 5.1% seasonal rate has fallen off to 0% in the past two weeks.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Pittsburgh Pirates' bullpen grades out as the 6th-worst out of all the teams in the majors.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Quick Takes Los Angeles Angels:

Tyler Anderson's fastball velocity has fallen 1.2 mph this year (88.3 mph) below where it was last year (89.5 mph).

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.

Mike Trout has seen a sizeable increase in his exit velocity of late; just compare his 105-mph average over the past week to his seasonal 91.6-mph EV.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

As forecasted by the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the Los Angeles Angels are expected to tally the most runs (5.05 on average) on the slate.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like player quality, ballpark, weather, umpire, defense, and more.

Game Trends

• The Los Angeles Angels have hit the Team Total Under in 9 of their last 11 games (+6.95 Units / 55% ROI)
• The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 10 of their last 16 games (+3.50 Units / 18% ROI)
• Kyren Paris has hit the Runs Under in his last 9 games (+9.00 Units / 46% ROI)

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Los Angeles Angels Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Pittsburgh Pirates 4.82, Los Angeles Angels 5.05

• Date: April 24, 2025
• Venue: Angel Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Carmen Mlodzinski - Pirates
  • Tyler Anderson - Angels

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