Pittsburgh Pirates vs Cincinnati Reds Prediction – 4/13/2025

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Cincinnati Reds Betting Preview

As the Cincinnati Reds prepare to host the Pittsburgh Pirates on April 13, 2025, both teams find themselves at the bottom of the National League Central standings. The Reds enter the game with a record of 7-8, while the Pirates are struggling at 5-10. The Reds notched a win against the Pirates in their previous encounter, triumphing 5-2, which marked a significant highlight in an otherwise lackluster season for Cincinnati.

Starting for the Reds will be Hunter Greene, who has been a bright spot in the rotation. Greene ranks as the 27th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced stats, and he recently delivered an impressive complete game shutout in his last outing, further solidifying his status as a top-tier talent. Despite projecting to allow 2.3 earned runs today, his high strikeout rate of 30.7% gives him a distinct advantage against the Pirates, who strike out more than any other team in the league.

On the mound for the Pirates is Carmen Mlodzinski, who has been underwhelming with a 5.19 ERA this season. While projections suggest he might perform better than his current numbers indicate, it's worth noting his high walk rate, which could be problematic against a Reds offense that, despite ranking 29th in MLB, is less prone to drawing walks.

Given the Reds’ edge in starting pitching and their recent success, they come into this matchup as strong favorites. Cincinnati's bullpen, while ranked 22nd in MLB, faces a Pirates team that ranks dead last in both offensive production and batting average. The low game total of 7.5 runs reflects the overall struggles of both lineups, but Cincinnati's pitching and the favorable matchup with Greene could tilt the game in their favor.

Quick Takes Pittsburgh Pirates:

Endy Rodriguez is projected to hit 4th on the lineup card in today's game, which would be an upgrade from his 92% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this year.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

The Pittsburgh Pirates have 3 batters in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Oneil Cruz, Jack Suwinski, Henry Davis).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Quick Takes Cincinnati Reds:

Hunter Greene is an extreme flyball pitcher (42.1% FB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) and has the misfortune of pitching in the #1 HR venue among all parks in today's game.

• This pitcher's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Elly De La Cruz has seen a notable increase in his exit velocity this season; just compare his 94.1-mph average to last season's 91.8-mph figure.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Cincinnati Reds' bullpen projects as the 9th-worst out of all the teams in the majors.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Run Line in 93 of their last 164 games (+9.85 Units / 4% ROI)
• The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 47 of their last 81 away games (+8.00 Units / 9% ROI)
• Bryan Reynolds has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 16 of his last 20 away games (+11.95 Units / 52% ROI)

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Cincinnati Reds Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Pittsburgh Pirates 4.04, Cincinnati Reds 4.52

• Date: April 13, 2025
• Venue: Great American Ball Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Carmen Mlodzinski - Pirates
  • Hunter Greene - Reds

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