Pittsburgh Pirates at Oakland Athletics Best Bet – 5/1/2024

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Oakland Athletics Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: May 1, 2024
• Venue: Oakland Coliseum
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Quinn Priester - Pirates
  • Ross Stripling - Athletics
• Run Line: Pirates -1.5 150, Athletics 1.5 -175
• Money Line: Pirates -115, Athletics -105
• Total (Over/Under): 8

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Oakland Athletics Win Probabilities

Implied Win %:

• Pittsburgh Pirates - 51%
• Oakland Athletics - 49%

Projected Win %:

• Pittsburgh Pirates - 47.51%
• Oakland Athletics - 52.49%

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Oakland Athletics Game Preview & Prediction

In a highly anticipated Interleague matchup, the Oakland Athletics will host the Pittsburgh Pirates at Oakland Coliseum on May 1, 2024. The Athletics, who currently hold a record of 13-17, are looking to improve their performance in what has been a challenging season so far. On the other hand, the Pirates, with a record of 14-16, are also seeking to elevate their game in what can be considered a below-average season for them.

Taking the mound for the Athletics is right-handed pitcher Ross Stripling, who has started six games this season. While Stripling hasn't secured a win yet with an 0-5 record, his ERA stands at 4.98, which is below average. However, his advanced-stat Power Rankings indicate that he is the #130 best starting pitcher in MLB out of approximately 350 pitchers, suggesting room for improvement.

Opposing Stripling will be right-handed pitcher Quinn Priester, who has started two games this season. Priester holds a record of 0-1 with an ERA of 3.48, which is considered great. However, his advanced-stat Power Rankings reveal that he is a below-average pitcher.

Both teams have been facing challenges in terms of offensive performance this season. The Athletics offense ranks as the #28 best in MLB, with a team batting average that places them at #30. However, they have shown strength in stolen bases, ranking #5 in the league. The Pirates offense has struggled as well, ranking #24 overall with a team batting average placing them at #26. Their strength lies in stolen bases, where they rank #12.

When it comes to the bullpens, the Athletics rank as the #26 best in MLB, while the Pirates rank as the #6 best. This could potentially impact the late stages of the game and the outcome.

Based on the current odds, the Athletics have an average implied team total of 3.95 runs, while the Pirates have an average implied team total of 4.05 runs for today's game. The game total is set at 8.0 runs, which is considered average.

With both teams aiming for a victory, the odds and projections suggest a close game. The Athletics are the home team and hold a slight advantage with a -105 moneyline, giving them a 49% implied win probability. The Pirates, as the away team, have a -115 moneyline, yielding a 51% implied win probability.

With the stage set for an intense battle, fans and bettors alike are eagerly looking forward to witnessing how these teams will perform. The game promises to be a competitive showdown between the Athletics and the Pirates as they strive to secure a victory on the diamond.

Quick Takes Pittsburgh Pirates:

In his last outing, Quinn Priester was firing on all cylinders and allowed 0 ER.

• A pitcher who was strong in his last outing may be sharp once again in his next outing.

Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (.438) suggests that Bryan Reynolds has had bad variance on his side this year with his .329 actual wOBA.

• xwOBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's overall hitting ability more accurately than actual wOBA can.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Pittsburgh Pirates' bullpen grades out as the 6th-best among all major league teams.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Quick Takes Oakland Athletics:

Ross Stripling has averaged 92.4 adjusted pitches per GS this year, grading out in the 79th percentile.

• Pitchers who average more pitches per game are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

Abraham Toro is projected to bat 7th in the batting order in this game, which would be a downgrade from his 78% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this year.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Tyler Nevin has a 96th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (39%) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of the game's 10th-deepest RF fences today.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Oakland Athletics have hit the Team Total Under in 74 of their last 130 games (+10.58 Units / 7% ROI)
• The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Moneyline in 34 of their last 65 games (+15.65 Units / 23% ROI)
• Tyler Nevin has hit the Singles Over in 12 of his last 17 games (+8.05 Units / 44% ROI)

Pirates vs Athletics Prediction: Pirates 4.13 - Athletics 4.13

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