Pittsburgh Pirates at Chicago Cubs Best Bet – 9/3/2024

• Date: September 3, 2024
• Venue: Wrigley Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Paul Skenes - Pirates
  • Kyle Hendricks - Cubs

Betting Odds

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Chicago Cubs Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Chicago Cubs Betting Preview

As the Chicago Cubs prepare to host the Pittsburgh Pirates on September 3, 2024, both teams find themselves underwhelming in the standings, with the Cubs sitting at 71-67 and the Pirates at 64-73. This matchup marks the second game of the series following the Pirates' 5-3 victory over the Cubs yesterday, a result that left Chicago reeling and looking for redemption.

The Cubs will send Kyle Hendricks to the mound, who has struggled this season with a 3-10 record and a 6.75 ERA. Hendricks, currently ranked as the 186th best starting pitcher in MLB, is coming off a disastrous outing where he allowed 6 earned runs over just 2 innings of work. However, despite his poor performance, advanced metrics suggest he may be due for some positive regression.

On the other side, the Pirates counter with their ace, Paul Skenes, the top-ranked starting pitcher in MLB, boasting an impressive 8-2 record and a stellar 2.23 ERA. Skenes has been a bright spot in Pittsburgh's rotation, having pitched well in his last start, allowing only 2 earned runs over 5 innings. His ability to limit walks (6.2 BB%) could be crucial against a Cubs lineup that ranks 5th in MLB in walks drawn.

While the Cubs' offense ranks 14th overall, they have faltered in key areas, including a disappointing 23rd in batting average and home runs. In contrast, the Pirates' offense is struggling, ranking 27th overall. The projections indicate a close game, with the Cubs expected to score around 3.46 runs and the Pirates slightly higher at 4.18 runs.

Quick Takes Pittsburgh Pirates:

Considering the 0.52 gap between Paul Skenes's 2.23 ERA and his 2.75 FIP, it's safe to say he's been one of the most fortunate pitchers in Major League Baseball this year and figures to see worse results in future games.

• Pitchers that are overperforming should be expected to pitch worse going forward, which can create value if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.

Isiah Kiner-Falefa has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this year (71% of the time), but he is projected to bat 1st in the batting order in today's game.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

Pittsburgh Pirates bats jointly place 9th- in MLB for power this year when using their 8.5% Barrel%.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Quick Takes Chicago Cubs:

Nico Hoerner has been cold lately, with his seasonal exit velocity of 85.4-mph dropping to 81.5-mph in the past 14 days.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Isaac Paredes pulls many of his flyballs (46.7% — 100th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards the game's 7th-shallowest LF fences today.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Chicago Cubs have hit the Moneyline in 29 of their last 47 games (+10.75 Units / 18% ROI)
• The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Run Line in 55 of their last 96 games (+11.55 Units / 9% ROI)
• Miguel Amaya has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 12 games (+17.10 Units / 142% ROI)

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Chicago Cubs Prediction

Final Score: Pittsburgh Pirates 4.22 vs Chicago Cubs 3.48

Visit the MLB picks and predictions section for the rest of today's games.