Pittsburgh Pirates at Arizona Diamondbacks Pick & Prediction – 7/28/2024

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Arizona Diamondbacks Details

• Date: July 28, 2024
• Venue: Chase Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Mitch Keller - Pirates
  • Yilber Diaz - D-Backs

Betting Odds

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Arizona Diamondbacks Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Arizona Diamondbacks Betting Preview

As the Arizona Diamondbacks prepare to host the Pittsburgh Pirates on July 28, 2024, at Chase Field, both teams are looking to make a statement in this National League matchup. The D-Backs, currently boasting a 55-50 record, are having an above-average season, while the Pirates, sitting at 52-52, are experiencing an average year. This game marks the third contest in their series, adding an extra layer of intrigue.

The D-Backs will send right-hander Yilber Diaz to the mound. Diaz, who has a 1-1 record with a 5.40 ERA across three starts this season, ranks as the #214 best starting pitcher according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, indicating he has struggled. However, his 4.80 xERA suggests he's been somewhat unlucky and could see improvement. Diaz's low strikeout rate (10.9 K%) might actually play to his advantage against the Pirates, who have the 5th most strikeouts in MLB.

On the other side, the Pirates will counter with Mitch Keller. Keller has been a workhorse for Pittsburgh, starting 20 games and posting a solid 10-5 record with a 3.34 ERA. Despite Keller's impressive ERA, his 4.06 xFIP suggests he's been somewhat fortunate this season and might regress. Keller's projections for this game are mixed, as he is expected to allow 3.2 earned runs and 6.2 hits over 5.5 innings, both of which are concerning figures.

Offensively, the D-Backs hold a significant edge. Ranked as the 9th best offense this season, Arizona's bats have been consistent, especially with Ketel Marte leading the charge. Over the last week, Marte has been on fire, hitting .364 with 4 home runs and an impressive 1.362 OPS. The Pirates, meanwhile, have struggled offensively, ranking 27th in MLB. Rowdy Tellez has been a bright spot recently, batting .357 over the last week, but the team overall lacks firepower.

Both bullpens are strong, with the D-Backs ranked 6th and the Pirates 8th in our advanced-stat Power Rankings. This game is projected to be close, with betting markets giving the Pirates a slight edge at -120, implying a 52% win probability. However, given the D-Backs' offensive prowess and Diaz's potential for better performance, Arizona might offer value at +100. Expect a tightly contested game with the potential for late-inning drama.

Quick Takes Pittsburgh Pirates:

Mitch Keller's cut-fastball utilization has dropped by 6.9% from last season to this one (24.3% to 17.4%) .

• Because cutters are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use them less often may see less success as a result, particularly if he uses his fastball more instead.

Ke'Bryan Hayes is penciled in 6th in the batting order in this matchup, which would be a downgrade from his 71% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this year.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

The Pittsburgh Pirates bullpen profiles as the 8th-best in the game, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Quick Takes Arizona Diamondbacks:

Among all the teams on the slate today, the 3rd-best infield defense is that of the Arizona Diamondbacks.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.

Joc Pederson may have an advantage against every reliever for the whole game, since the bullpen of the Pittsburgh Pirates has just 1 same-handed RP.

• Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.

Today, Joc Pederson is at a disadvantage facing the league's 3rd-deepest RF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the pull field at a 36.7% rate (94th percentile).

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Team Total Over in 26 of their last 40 games (+10.50 Units / 23% ROI)
• The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 56 of their last 95 games (+12.40 Units / 11% ROI)
• Joc Pederson has hit the Runs Under in 33 of his last 48 games (+11.85 Units / 17% ROI)

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Arizona Diamondbacks Prediction

Final Score: Pittsburgh Pirates 4.55 vs Arizona Diamondbacks 5.08

Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.