Philadelphia Phillies vs San Diego Padres Prediction, Odds, Picks – 4/28/2024

Philadelphia Phillies vs San Diego Padres Betting Pick & Prediction & Preview

• Date: April 28, 2024
• Venue: Petco Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Taijuan Walker - Phillies
  • Michael King - Padres
• Run Line: Phillies 1.5 -180, Padres -1.5 155
• Money Line: Phillies 115, Padres -135
• Total (Over/Under): 8.5

Philadelphia Phillies vs San Diego Padres Win Probabilities

Implied Win %:

• Philadelphia Phillies - 45%
• San Diego Padres - 55%

Projected Win %:

• Philadelphia Phillies - 42.54%
• San Diego Padres - 57.46%

Philadelphia Phillies vs San Diego Padres Game Preview & Prediction

In a National League matchup, the San Diego Padres will take on the Philadelphia Phillies on April 28, 2024, at Petco Park. The Padres, with a record of 14-16, are having a below-average season, while the Phillies, with a record of 18-10, are having a great season. This will be the third game in the series between these two teams.

The Padres, playing as the home team, will be looking to bounce back after losing to the Phillies in their last game with a score of 5-1. In that game, the Padres had a closing Moneyline price of -115, indicating a close matchup. Despite their loss, the Padres' offense ranks as the 7th best in MLB this season, showcasing their underlying talent. Ha-Seong Kim has been their best hitter this season, contributing 17 runs, 17 RBIs, and 4 home runs.

On the mound for the Padres will be right-handed pitcher Michael King. According to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, King is ranked as the 27th best starting pitcher in MLB, making him a valuable asset for the team. He has started 5 games this year, with a Win/Loss record of 2-2 and an ERA of 4.11. While his ERA is above average, his 5.63 FIP suggests that he may not perform as well going forward. King is projected to pitch around 5.2 innings, allowing 2.4 earned runs, striking out 5.8 batters, but also allowing 4.9 hits and 1.7 walks on average.

The Phillies, playing as the away team, will aim to continue their winning streak after defeating the Padres in their previous matchup. The Phillies' offense ranks as the 8th best in MLB this season, highlighting their talent. Trea Turner has been their standout hitter, with a batting average of .345 and an OPS of .880.

The Phillies will start right-handed pitcher Taijuan Walker, who projects to pitch around 5.3 innings, allowing 2.9 earned runs. However, his strikeout projection is low, and he is expected to allow 5.5 hits and 1.9 walks on average.

According to THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, the Padres are favored to win this game with a projected win probability of 57%. However, the betting markets indicate a close game, with the Padres' moneyline set at -135 (implied win probability of 55%) and the Phillies' moneyline at +115 (implied win probability of 45%).

With a high implied team total of 4.50 runs, the Padres are expected to have a strong offensive performance. THE BAT X projects them to score an average of 4.78 runs. The Phillies, with an average implied team total of 4.00 runs, are projected to score an average of 4.31 runs.

Quick Takes Philadelphia Phillies:

The Philadelphia Phillies outfield defense profiles as the 5th-strongest out of every team in action today.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.

Bryce Harper will hold the platoon advantage against Michael King in today's game.

• Right-handed hitters perform better against left-handed pitchers (and visa-versa). This can have a huge impact on whether a hitter will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Quick Takes San Diego Padres:

Michael King has averaged 94.8 adjusted pitches per outing this year, grading out in the 84th percentile.

• Pitchers who average more pitches per game are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

The San Diego Padres bullpen ranks as the 6th-best in baseball, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 20 of their last 28 games (+11.15 Units / 26% ROI)
• The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 73 of their last 119 games (+11.50 Units / 7% ROI)

Phillies vs Padres Prediction: Phillies 4.31 - Padres 4.78

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