Philadelphia Phillies vs Pittsburgh Pirates Prediction, Odds & Picks – 7/20/2024

Philadelphia Phillies vs Pittsburgh Pirates Details

• Date: July 20, 2024
• Venue: PNC Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Cristopher Sanchez - Phillies
  • Luis Ortiz - Pirates

Betting Odds

Philadelphia Phillies vs Pittsburgh Pirates Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Philadelphia Phillies vs Pittsburgh Pirates Betting Preview

On July 20, 2024, the Pittsburgh Pirates will host the Philadelphia Phillies at PNC Park for the second game of their series. The Pirates, with a 49-48 record, are having an average season, while the Phillies, at 62-35, are enjoying a great campaign. This National League matchup features two pitchers trending in opposite directions: Luis Ortiz for the Pirates and Cristopher Sanchez for the Phillies.

Luis Ortiz is set to start for Pittsburgh. Despite his respectable 2.84 ERA, his 4.15 xFIP suggests he’s been rather fortunate this season. Ortiz has a 4-2 record over 6 starts and 25 bullpen appearances, but his projected numbers for this game are concerning. THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, forecasts Ortiz to pitch just 4.8 innings, allowing 3.0 earned runs, 5.5 hits, and 1.8 walks while striking out only 3.6 batters. His high-flyball tendency (37% FB) could spell trouble against a powerful Phillies lineup that ranks 6th in team home runs with 118 this season.

Cristopher Sanchez, on the other hand, has been a bright spot for Philadelphia. With a 7-4 record and a stellar 2.96 ERA, he’s proven to be a reliable starter. However, his 3.48 xERA indicates he’s also had some luck on his side. Sanchez is projected to pitch 5.3 innings, allowing 2.5 earned runs, 5.5 hits, and 1.7 walks, while striking out 4.9 batters. These numbers might not be dazzling, but they are solid enough to keep the Phillies in the driver’s seat.

Offensively, the Phillies boast one of the best lineups in baseball, ranking 3rd in both overall offense and team batting average. They've also shown prowess in hitting home runs (6th) and stealing bases (4th). In stark contrast, the Pirates’ offense ranks 28th overall, with particularly poor showings in batting average (26th), home runs (21st), and stolen bases (24th).

Philadelphia also holds the edge in bullpen performance, ranking 3rd in advanced-stat Power Rankings compared to the Pirates' 8th place. This disparity, combined with their superior starting pitcher and more potent offense, makes the Phillies the favorites with a moneyline of -160 and an implied win probability of 60%. The Pirates, underdogs at +140, have an implied win probability of 40%.

Quick Takes Philadelphia Phillies:

The Pittsburgh Pirates have 8 bats in the projected offense that will have the handedness advantage over Cristopher Sanchez in this game.

• Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Kyle Schwarber has seen a sizeable improvement in his exit velocity lately; just compare his 97.2-mph average in the last two weeks' worth of games to his seasonal 93.6-mph mark.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Garrett Stubbs, the Phillies's expected catcher in today's matchup, projects as a horrible pitch framer according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Pitch framing is a catcher's ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, "stealing" strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Quick Takes Pittsburgh Pirates:

Out of all SPs, Luis Ortiz's fastball velocity of 95.2 mph grades out in the 89th percentile since the start of last season.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Jack Suwinski has experienced some negative variance in regards to his batting average this year; his .174 BA is a fair amount lower than his .226 Expected Batting Average, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

• xBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's batting average ability more accurately than actual batting average can.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Pittsburgh Pirates' bullpen grades out as the 8th-best among all teams in the majors.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 26 of their last 53 games (+12.60 Units / 19% ROI)
• The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 54 of their last 82 games (+21.40 Units / 15% ROI)
• Nick Castellanos has hit the Home Runs Over in 6 of his last 23 away games (+9.80 Units / 43% ROI)

Philadelphia Phillies vs Pittsburgh Pirates Prediction

Final Score: Philadelphia Phillies 5.53 vs Pittsburgh Pirates 4.33

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