Philadelphia Phillies vs New York Mets Pick – 4/23/2025

Philadelphia Phillies vs New York Mets Betting Preview

On April 23, 2025, the New York Mets host the Philadelphia Phillies at Citi Field in a National League East showdown. With the Mets sitting at 17-7, they are enjoying a strong season, while the Phillies are hovering at 13-11, navigating an above-average start. This matchup carries weight as the teams have already clashed twice in this series, with the Mets winning both as part of a six-game winning streak.

In this game, the Mets' David Peterson is projected to start against Phillies ace Zack Wheeler. Peterson has had a decent year, with a 3.27 ERA and a 1-1 record over four starts. While his xFIP of 2.68 indicates he may be due for a positive regression, he has struggled with walks, averaging 2.2 per game, which could be problematic against a solid Phillies lineup.

Wheeler, ranked 5th among MLB pitchers, boasts a 3.73 ERA and a strikingly low xFIP of 2.51, highlighting his potential for improved outcomes. He has also shown an ability to rack up strikeouts, sitting at 33.6% this season. However, Wheeler faces a Mets offense that ranks 19th in MLB. This low strikeout offense could present an unexpected challenge for him, as he may find it harder to capitalize on his strengths.

Philadelphia's offense ranks 5th in the league, indicating their overall capability to score runs, although they struggle with power, ranking 22nd in home runs. In contrast, the Mets' offensive metrics suggest a team that is merely average, ranking 19th in batting average and 19th in runs scored.

The game total is set at a low 7.5 runs, reflecting the anticipated tight contest. With both teams' bullpens struggling—New York at 22nd and Philadelphia at 26th—it might just come down to which offense can capitalize better. Betting markets suggest a close game with the Mets currently at +100 on the moneyline, offering an appealing opportunity for those looking to wager on this matchup.

Quick Takes Philadelphia Phillies:

Despite conventional wisdom, fastballs are typically a pitcher's least effective pitch. Zack Wheeler has used his fastball a lot this year, though: 56.6% of the time, grading out in the 100th percentile.

• Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so pitchers who rely too heavily on them tend to be less effective than they otherwise would be.

Kyle Schwarber has seen a significant gain in his exit velocity on flyballs this season; just compare his 100-mph average to last season's 97.9-mph mark.

• Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.

As a team, Philadelphia Phillies bats have excelled as far as hitting balls in the launch angle range that tends to best-produce base hits (between -4° and 26°), rating 5th-best in MLB.

• Balls that are hit either too high or too low can easy to field, but balls hit between -4° and 26° are far more likely to become base hits.

Quick Takes New York Mets:

Out of all starters, David Peterson's fastball spin rate of 2139.8 rpm ranks in the 23rd percentile since the start of last season.

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Extreme groundball batters like Juan Soto usually hit better against extreme flyball pitchers like Zack Wheeler.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

The New York Mets bullpen grades out as the 10th-worst in the majors, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 5 of their last 6 games at home (+5.25 Units / 58% ROI)
• The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Game Total Under in 5 of their last 6 away games (+3.85 Units / 57% ROI)
• Nick Castellanos has hit the Runs Under in 8 of his last 9 away games (+6.05 Units / 40% ROI)

Philadelphia Phillies vs New York Mets Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Philadelphia Phillies 4.34, New York Mets 4.12

• Date: April 23, 2025
• Venue: Citi Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Zack Wheeler - Phillies
  • David Peterson - Mets

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