Philadelphia Phillies vs Cleveland Guardians Pick – 5/9/2025

On May 9, 2025, the Cleveland Guardians will host the Philadelphia Phillies at Progressive Field for the first game of their interleague series. Both teams enter this matchup with identical records of 22-15, showcasing that they are both having solid seasons. The Guardians have been particularly strong at home, bolstered by an impressive bullpen ranked 4th in MLB. In contrast, the Phillies' bullpen struggles, sitting at 25th, which could be a critical factor in a tightly contested game.

Cleveland's Gavin Williams is projected to start, and while he has a mixed record of 2-2 with a 5.06 ERA, his 3.97 xFIP suggests he may be due for a turnaround. He has struggled with control, boasting a 13.0 BB% this season, which could play into the hands of a patient Phillies offense that ranks 5th in drawing walks. Williams projects to pitch around 5.2 innings, allowing an average of 2.5 earned runs.

On the other side, Aaron Nola will take the mound for Philadelphia. Nola's 1-5 record and 4.61 ERA may not reflect his true capabilities, as his 3.27 xFIP indicates he has faced some bad luck. He is expected to pitch 5.9 innings and also projects to allow 2.5 earned runs, which could lead to a low-scoring affair given the Game Total is set at just 7.5 runs.

Cleveland's offense ranks 17th overall but has shown signs of life recently, with their best hitter performing well over the last week. In contrast, Philadelphia's offense ranks 9th, driven by a strong batting average of .285, which places them 3rd in that category. With the Guardians' strong bullpen and the Phillies' bullpen struggles, this matchup could tip in favor of Cleveland, despite the close odds.

Quick Takes Philadelphia Phillies:

Considering that groundball batters have a significant advantage over flyball pitchers, Aaron Nola and his 42.7% underlying GB% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be in a hard spot in today's outing facing 3 opposing GB batters.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Brandon Marsh has taken a step back with his Barrel% in recent games; his 6.2% seasonal rate has dropped to 0% over the last 7 days.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Kyle Schwarber pulls a lot of his flyballs (40.1% — 98th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards MLB's 6th-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Cleveland Guardians:

Gavin Williams's change-up percentage has fallen by 5.1% from last year to this one (5.4% to 0.3%) .

• Because change-ups are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use them less often may see less success as a result, particularly if he uses his fastball more instead.

Daniel Schneemann has seen a big increase in his exit velocity on flyballs this season; just compare his 99.6-mph average to last year's 90.5-mph average.

• Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.

The Cleveland Guardians have 3 hitters in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Gabriel Arias, Nolan Jones, Daniel Schneemann).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Game Trends

• The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 13 of their last 19 games (+7.65 Units / 37% ROI)
• The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Game Total Under in 10 of their last 14 away games (+5.55 Units / 36% ROI)
• Aaron Nola has hit the Strikeouts Over in 13 of his last 15 games (+11.05 Units / 63% ROI)

Philadelphia Phillies vs Cleveland Guardians Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Philadelphia Phillies 4.53, Cleveland Guardians 4.12

• Date: May 9, 2025
• Venue: Progressive Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Aaron Nola - Phillies
  • Gavin Williams - Guardians

Stay informed with the most recent MLB news and our analytics-driven MLB picks and predictions all season long.