Philadelphia Phillies vs Chicago Cubs Prediction, Preview, & Odds – 7/3/2024

Philadelphia Phillies vs Chicago Cubs Details

• Date: July 3, 2024
• Venue: Wrigley Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Zack Wheeler - Phillies
  • Shota Imanaga - Cubs

Betting Odds

Philadelphia Phillies vs Chicago Cubs Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Philadelphia Phillies vs Chicago Cubs Betting Preview

The Chicago Cubs and Philadelphia Phillies are set to clash on July 3, 2024, at Wrigley Field in the second game of their series. The Cubs, currently holding a 39-47 record, are having a below-average season, while the Phillies, at 56-29, are enjoying a great year. This National League matchup features two contrasting teams, with the Cubs struggling and the Phillies thriving.

The Cubs will send left-hander Shota Imanaga to the mound. Imanaga, with a 7-2 record and a solid 3.07 ERA, has been above average this season, ranking 79th among approximately 350 starting pitchers according to advanced stats. However, his 3.75 xFIP suggests he might have been a bit lucky and could regress. He projects to pitch six innings, allowing 2.7 earned runs on average. Although he's a high-flyball pitcher (44% FB rate), the Phillies' powerful offense, which ranks 5th in MLB with 101 home runs, could exploit this.

On the other side, the Phillies will counter with right-hander Zack Wheeler, who boasts a 9-4 record and an excellent 2.73 ERA, ranking 9th among starting pitchers. Wheeler's 3.47 xFIP also hints at some luck, but his high-strikeout ability (26.7% K rate) could be a significant advantage against the Cubs' offense, which ranks 6th in strikeouts. Wheeler projects to pitch 5.8 innings, allowing 2.5 earned runs on average.

Offensively, the Cubs have been average, ranking 19th overall but struggling with a 25th-ranked team batting average. However, they've been successful on the basepaths, ranking 8th in stolen bases. Ian Happ has been their standout hitter over the last week, with a 1.164 OPS and two home runs in six games.

The Phillies' offense, on the other hand, has been stellar, ranking 4th overall. They are 3rd in team batting average, 5th in home runs, and 4th in stolen bases. Trea Turner has been red-hot lately, hitting .407 with a 1.169 OPS over the last week.

Both bullpens are solid, with the Cubs ranked 17th and the Phillies 6th in the advanced-stat Power Rankings. While the betting markets see this as a close game, with the Cubs at +110 and the Phillies at -130, THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, gives the Cubs a 52% win probability. This suggests there may be value in betting on the Cubs in this matchup.

Quick Takes Philadelphia Phillies:

Compared to average, Zack Wheeler has been granted a longer leash than the typical pitcher this year, recording an additional 9.7 adjusted pitches each start.

• Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

Extreme groundball batters like Cristian Pache generally hit better against extreme flyball pitchers like Shota Imanaga.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the projected offense for the Philadelphia Phillies in today's game carries an estimated true talent wOBA of .307, which is a fair amount worse than their actual wOBA of .327 this year.

• Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today's lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren't accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Quick Takes Chicago Cubs:

With 8 hitters who bat from the other side in the opposing team's projected offense, Shota Imanaga will not have the upper hand while lacking the platoon advantage in most plate appearances today.

• Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Christopher Morel is projected to bat 6th on the lineup card today, which would be a downgrade from his 89% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this season.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Chicago's 92.9-mph exit velocity on flyballs ranks them as the #6 squad in the majors this year by this standard.

• Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.

Game Trends

• The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 19 of their last 25 games at home (+13.10 Units / 47% ROI)
• The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 51 of their last 78 games (+21.25 Units / 15% ROI)
• Nick Castellanos has hit the Hits Under in 15 of his last 25 away games (+10.20 Units / 30% ROI)

Philadelphia Phillies vs Chicago Cubs Prediction

Final Score: Philadelphia Phillies 4.7 vs Chicago Cubs 4.1

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