Philadelphia Phillies vs Chicago Cubs Prediction – 4/26/2025

Philadelphia Phillies vs Chicago Cubs Betting Preview

The Chicago Cubs will host the Philadelphia Phillies on April 26, 2025, at Wrigley Field for the second game of their series. After a tight matchup yesterday, the Cubs emerged victorious, and they are currently enjoying a strong 17-10 record this season, placing them in a favorable position. In contrast, the Phillies sit at 13-13, having struggled to find consistency this year.

On the mound, the Cubs are set to start Ben Brown, who has shown flashes of promise despite his average ERA of 4.57. Brown's ability to limit earned runs is commendable, projecting to allow just 1.8 earned runs today. However, his high walk rate of 12.4% could be a concern against a Phillies offense that ranks among the best in drawing walks. With a patient lineup, Philadelphia could capitalize on Brown's control issues.

On the other side, the Phillies will counter with Jesus Luzardo, who boasts an impressive ERA of 2.08 and a solid record of 2-0 this season. Luzardo’s ability to keep walks down to just 5.8% bodes well for him as he faces a Cubs lineup that leads MLB in walks. Despite projections indicating that Luzardo may regress, he has been effective thus far.

The Cubs' offense has been exceptional, ranking 1st overall in MLB, particularly with a strong batting average and a good showing in home runs. Conversely, the Phillies' offense sits at 8th, but they lag behind in power, ranking just 22nd in home runs.

With both teams having low implied totals of 3.50 runs, today's matchup might hinge on which pitcher can better manage the opposing offenses. Given the Cubs' superior run production and home-field advantage, they appear to be in a strong position to secure another win.

Quick Takes Philadelphia Phillies:

Jesus Luzardo's 95.7-mph fastball velocity this year is in the 88th percentile out of all SPs.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Bryson Stott's average exit velocity has decreased this season; his 86.9-mph EV last season has fallen to 83.3-mph.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Kyle Schwarber pulls many of his flyballs (39.8% — 98th percentile) and will have to hit them out towards MLB's 5th-deepest RF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Chicago Cubs:

Ben Brown is an extreme flyball pitcher (33.5% FB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) and should be aided by pitching in the #22 HR venue in Major League Baseball in this matchup.

• This pitcher's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Extreme groundball batters like Justin Turner tend to be less successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Jesus Luzardo.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the projected lineup for the Chicago Cubs today holds an estimated true talent wOBA of .328, which is a fair amount worse than their actual wOBA of .349 this year.

• Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today's lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren't accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Game Trends

• The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 12 of their last 18 games (+7.95 Units / 33% ROI)
• The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Under in 7 of their last 8 away games (+6.05 Units / 67% ROI)
• Pete Crow-Armstrong has hit the Total Bases Over in 17 of his last 25 games (+6.75 Units / 19% ROI)

Philadelphia Phillies vs Chicago Cubs Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Philadelphia Phillies 3.36, Chicago Cubs 3.38

• Date: April 26, 2025
• Venue: Wrigley Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Jesus Luzardo - Phillies
  • Ben Brown - Cubs

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.