Philadelphia Phillies vs Chicago Cubs Pick – 4/27/2025

Philadelphia Phillies vs Chicago Cubs Betting Preview

As the Chicago Cubs host the Philadelphia Phillies at Wrigley Field on April 27, 2025, both teams are looking to gain momentum in what has been an intriguing series. The Cubs, currently sitting atop the National League Central with a 17-11 record, are enjoying a strong season, while the Phillies trail slightly in the NL East with a 14-13 record, marking them as above average thus far.

In their last game, the Phillies came away with a victory despite the Cubs' potent offense, which ranks 1st in MLB. Their offense has been exceptional, leading the league in batting average and demonstrating impressive power with 38 home runs.

On the mound, the Cubs are projected to start Jameson Taillon, who has a 1-1 record and an ERA of 4.73 this season. Despite being ranked 122nd among starting pitchers, Taillon shows signs of potential improvement, aided by his 3.88 xFIP indicating he could perform better moving forward. He faces Aaron Nola of the Phillies, who has struggled with a 0-5 record and a dismal 6.43 ERA. However, the projections suggest Nola's luck might turn as his 3.37 xFIP indicates he has been unlucky this season.

The game total is set at an average of 8.0 runs, and with both teams’ strengths and weaknesses, it shapes up to be a competitive matchup. The Cubs’ lineup, coupled with Nola’s struggles, could give Chicago a slight edge in this contest.

Quick Takes Philadelphia Phillies:

Aaron Nola's change-up rate has increased by 6.3% from last season to this one (9.6% to 15.9%) .

• Because change-ups are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.

Batters such as Johan Rojas with extreme groundball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Jameson Taillon who skew towards the flyball end of the spectrum.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Kyle Schwarber pulls many of his flyballs (39.8% — 98th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards the game's 5th-deepest RF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Chicago Cubs:

Among all the teams today, the 3rd-strongest infield defense belongs to the Chicago Cubs.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.

Carson Kelly has negatively regressed with his Barrel% lately; his 20.9% seasonal rate has dropped to 0% in the last week's worth of games.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

The underlying talent of the Chicago Cubs projected offense today (.332 projected wOBA per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) figures to be significantly worse than their .346 wOBA this year.

• Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today's lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren't accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Game Trends

• The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 16 of their last 21 games (+10.40 Units / 42% ROI)
• The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Under in 4 of their last 6 away games (+1.80 Units / 26% ROI)
• Kyle Schwarber has hit the Singles Over in 12 of his last 25 away games (+6.15 Units / 25% ROI)

Philadelphia Phillies vs Chicago Cubs Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Philadelphia Phillies 4.45, Chicago Cubs 4.42

• Date: April 27, 2025
• Venue: Wrigley Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Aaron Nola - Phillies
  • Jameson Taillon - Cubs

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