Philadelphia Phillies vs Atlanta Braves Prediction & Picks 7/6/2024

Philadelphia Phillies vs Atlanta Braves Details

• Date: July 6, 2024
• Venue: Truist Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Ranger Suarez - Phillies
  • Spencer Schwellenbach - Braves

Betting Odds

Philadelphia Phillies vs Atlanta Braves Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Philadelphia Phillies vs Atlanta Braves Betting Preview

The Atlanta Braves and the Philadelphia Phillies are set for an exciting clash on July 6, 2024, at Truist Park. This National League East matchup features two high-performing teams, with the Phillies boasting a stellar 58-30 record, while the Braves hold a respectable 47-39 mark. Both teams are very much in the hunt for playoff spots, making this game particularly significant.

Spencer Schwellenbach is the projected starter for the Braves. Despite his tough Win/Loss record of 1-4 and a high 5.68 ERA, his 3.78 xFIP hints that he has been unlucky and could improve. Schwellenbach's matchups will be against a potent Phillies lineup, currently ranked 4th in MLB offensive power rankings. The Phillies are also 3rd in team batting average and 5th in home runs, making this a challenging outing for the Braves' right-hander.

Ranger Suarez will take the mound for the Phillies. With a 10-2 record and an impressive 2.27 ERA, Suarez has been excellent this season. However, his 2.92 xFIP suggests he may have been somewhat fortunate. The Braves' offense, ranked 14th in power rankings and 14th in home runs, will need to bring their A-game to counter Suarez's effectiveness.

In their last outing, the Phillies' Trea Turner has been on fire, batting .407 with 4 home runs and 10 RBIs over the past week. Meanwhile, the Braves have relied heavily on Austin Riley, who has recorded a .300 batting average and a 1.075 OPS over the same period.

Both bullpens are strong, with the Phillies ranked 4th and the Braves 7th according to our power rankings. The game total is set at 8.5 runs, indicating a potentially balanced contest. Betting markets reflect this, with both teams having an implied win probability of 50%.

With the Braves looking to gain ground in the standings and the Phillies aiming to maintain their strong season, this game promises to be tightly contested and could hinge on key performances from the starting pitchers and the offenses' ability to capitalize on their opportunities.

Quick Takes Philadelphia Phillies:

Ranger Suarez has been lucky this year, notching a 2.27 ERA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT) estimating his true talent level to be 3.72 — a 1.45 deviation.

• Pitchers that are overperforming should be expected to pitch worse going forward, which can create value if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.

Brandon Marsh has seen a significant increase in his exit velocity recently; just compare his 94.6-mph average in the last 14 days to his seasonal 92.4-mph EV.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), Garrett Stubbs (the Phillies's expected catcher in today's matchup) projects as a horrible pitch framer.

• Pitch framing is a catcher's ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, "stealing" strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Quick Takes Atlanta Braves:

Out of all SPs, Spencer Schwellenbach's fastball velocity of 95.1 mph is in the 90th percentile this year.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Philadelphia's #3-ranked outfield defense on the slate poses a formidable challenge for Ozzie Albies, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs.

• This player's skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team's defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

The Atlanta Braves bullpen projects as the 7th-best in the game, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 52 of their last 86 games (+18.95 Units / 20% ROI)
• The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 49 of their last 72 games (+21.10 Units / 22% ROI)
• Ozzie Albies has hit the Hits Under in 29 of his last 48 games (+12.10 Units / 16% ROI)

Philadelphia Phillies vs Atlanta Braves Prediction

Final Score: Philadelphia Phillies 4.28 vs Atlanta Braves 4.88

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