Philadelphia Phillies vs Atlanta Braves Pick – 4/9/2025

Philadelphia Phillies vs Atlanta Braves Betting Preview

As the Atlanta Braves host the Philadelphia Phillies on April 9, 2025, both teams are looking to gain an edge in this National League East matchup. The Braves, struggling with a 2-8 record, are coming off a win in their last game, while the Phillies, riding high with a 7-3 record, are looking to build on their success.

On the mound, the Braves are projected to start Grant Holmes, who has had a rocky start to the season with an 0-1 record and a troubling 7.20 ERA. Despite being ranked as the 151st best starting pitcher in MLB, Holmes has some underlying metrics that suggest he may be due for better performance, with a 5.02 xFIP indicating some bad luck. He projects to pitch around 5.3 innings today, allowing an average of 2.8 earned runs, but his tendency to give up 5.3 hits and 1.8 walks could be problematic against a potent Phillies lineup.

Taijuan Walker, on the other hand, is projected to start for the Phillies. With a perfect 1-0 record and an impressive 0.00 ERA so far this season, Walker has certainly benefited from some good fortune, as evidenced by his 4.54 xFIP. He is expected to pitch about 4.9 innings, allowing an average of 3.3 earned runs, which could be a concern given his struggles with hits and walks.

Offensively, the Braves rank 28th in MLB, struggling to find their rhythm at the plate, while the Phillies boast the 3rd best offense, highlighted by their .300 batting average and strong overall performance. The Braves' moneyline of -125 suggests they are slight favorites, but given their current form and the projections, the Phillies might have the upper hand in this matchup. With a Game Total set at 9.0 runs, this clash could yield plenty of scoring opportunities, especially for the Phillies, who are projected to score around 4.34 runs compared to the Braves' 4.66.

Quick Takes Philadelphia Phillies:

The Philadelphia Phillies outfield defense profiles as the 2nd-worst among all the teams today.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.

Alec Bohm's average exit velocity has risen significantly from last season to this one, averaging 94.9-mph now compared to just 90.4-mph then.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Bryce Harper has a 94th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (37.3%) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards MLB's 2nd-deepest LF fences today.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Atlanta Braves:

Grant Holmes is an extreme flyball pitcher (33.1% FB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) and is fortunate enough to be pitching in the #25 HR venue among all parks in this matchup.

• This pitcher's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Philadelphia's 3rd-worst outfield defense of all teams on the slate creates a favorable matchup for Ozzie Albies, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs.

• This player's skill set matches up well with the opposing team's defensive weakness, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

It may be smart to expect stronger performance for the Atlanta Braves offense in the future, considering that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) views them as the unluckiest offense in Major League Baseball since the start of last season.

• When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Game Trends

• The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 95 of their last 150 games (+39.90 Units / 24% ROI)
• The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Game Total Over in 43 of their last 76 away games (+9.80 Units / 12% ROI)
• J.T. Realmuto has hit the Total Bases Under in 7 of his last 8 away games (+6.35 Units / 57% ROI)

• Date: April 9, 2025
• Venue: Truist Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Taijuan Walker - Phillies
  • Grant Holmes - Braves

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