Philadelphia Phillies at Washington Nationals Prediction For 9/29/2024

• Date: September 29, 2024
• Venue: Nationals Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Aaron Nola - Phillies
  • Jake Irvin - Nationals

Betting Odds

Philadelphia Phillies vs Washington Nationals Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Philadelphia Phillies vs Washington Nationals Betting Preview

As the Washington Nationals host the Philadelphia Phillies on September 29, 2024, at Nationals Park, the stage is set for a clash of two clubs from the National League East with contrasting seasons. The Nationals are having a tough year with a 71-90 record, while the Phillies are enjoying a stellar campaign at 94-67. With this being the third game in their series, the Nationals will rely on right-hander Jake Irvin, who holds a 10-13 record and a 4.22 ERA this season. Opposing him is Philadelphia's ace, Aaron Nola, boasting a 13-8 record and a solid 3.52 ERA.

In terms of offense, the Nationals rank 23rd in MLB, highlighting their struggles, especially in the power department where they sit 29th in team home runs. However, their speed on the bases remains a bright spot, leading MLB in stolen bases. The Phillies, contrastingly, bring the 4th best offense, showcasing a potent lineup that ranks 5th in batting average and 7th in home runs.

THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, identifies the Nationals as significant underdogs with a projected win probability of 40%. This slightly edges out their implied win probability of 39%, suggesting there might be a sliver of value in backing Washington, especially considering Aaron Nola's vulnerability to allowing hits and walks this season. For the Phillies, their projected win probability of 60% matches the implied odds, reflecting their status as favorites.

Both teams' bullpens present challenges; the Nationals' relief corps ranks a dismal 28th, while Philadelphia's is 20th, emphasizing potential late-game volatility. As the Nationals look to play spoiler, Phillies fans can remain hopeful that their team's consistency will shine through once again.

Quick Takes Philadelphia Phillies:

Out of every team today, the 2nd-worst outfield defense belongs to the Philadelphia Phillies.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.

Brandon Marsh has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this season (75% of the time), but he is projected to hit 5th on the lineup card in this matchup.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

The Philadelphia Phillies have 3 bats in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Weston Wilson, Brandon Marsh, Kyle Schwarber).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Quick Takes Washington Nationals:

Jake Irvin has been given a longer leash than the typical pitcher this year, throwing 3.8 more adjusted pitches-per-start than the average starter.

• Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

Nasim Nunez's average exit velocity has declined lately; his 83.2-mph seasonal figure has dropped off to 77.4-mph over the last two weeks.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

The Washington Nationals bullpen ranks as the 3rd-worst in Major League Baseball, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 11 of their last 15 games (+7.10 Units / 39% ROI)
• The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 48 of their last 79 games (+14.80 Units / 16% ROI)
• Kyle Schwarber has hit the Hits Over in 19 of his last 24 games (+10.40 Units / 26% ROI)

Philadelphia Phillies vs Washington Nationals Prediction

Final Score: Philadelphia Phillies 4.78 vs Washington Nationals 3.91

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