Philadelphia Phillies at Washington Nationals Best Bet – 9/27/2024

• Date: September 27, 2024
• Venue: Nationals Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Ranger Suarez - Phillies
  • Trevor Williams - Nationals

Betting Odds

Philadelphia Phillies vs Washington Nationals Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Philadelphia Phillies vs Washington Nationals Betting Preview

As the Washington Nationals prepare to host the Philadelphia Phillies on September 27, 2024, at Nationals Park, the disparity between the two teams this season is evident. The Nationals, with a 69-90 record, are struggling, while the Phillies boast an impressive 94-65 record, showcasing their strong performance in the National League East.

Trevor Williams will take the mound for Washington, posting a 5-1 record with an impressive 2.19 ERA this season. However, his advanced metrics, such as a 3.86 xFIP, suggest he might regress. Williams projects poorly, with expectations of allowing 2.8 earned runs and only striking out 3.8 batters over an average of 4.7 innings. The Nationals' offense, ranked 24th overall and 29th in home runs, will face Ranger Suarez, a left-handed pitcher with a solid 3.15 ERA for Philadelphia. Suarez is ranked as the 41st best starting pitcher in MLB and projects to allow just 2.1 earned runs over an average of 6.2 innings.

Offensively, the Phillies are ranked 4th in MLB, excelling in batting average and home runs. Nick Castellanos has been on fire recently, hitting .545 with a 1.520 OPS over the past week. In contrast, Washington's James Wood has been the standout, hitting .273 with a 0.815 OPS in the same span. The Nationals' bullpen, ranked 28th, may struggle against a potent Phillies lineup projected to score 5.47 runs according to THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system.

Betting odds favor the Phillies, with a moneyline of -180 and an implied win probability of 62%. The projections suggest even stronger confidence in a Phillies victory, pegging their win probability at 68%. With a high-powered offense and a solid pitcher on the mound, Philadelphia looks poised to continue their dominant season against the struggling Nationals.

Quick Takes Philadelphia Phillies:

Given the 0.61 gap between Ranger Suarez's 8.66 K/9 and his 8.05 estimated true talent K/9 (via the leading projection system, THE BAT), it's safe to say he's been one of the luckiest pitchers in the game this year as it relates to strikeouts and figures to see negative regression the rest of the season.

• Pitchers that are overperforming should be expected to pitch worse going forward, which can create value on K prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.

J.T. Realmuto has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this season (62% of the time), but he is projected to hit 7th in the lineup in this game.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Philadelphia Phillies bats as a group rank 21st- in the game for power this year when using their 91.7-mph exit velocity on flyballs.

• Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.

Quick Takes Washington Nationals:

Among all starting pitchers, Trevor Williams's fastball velocity of 88.5 mph is in the 2nd percentile this year.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Nasim Nunez's average exit velocity has decreased in recent games; his 82.8-mph seasonal average has fallen to 76.1-mph over the last 14 days.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

When it comes to his overall offensive skill, Trey Lipscomb ranks in the 6th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.

Game Trends

• The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Under in 24 of their last 42 games (+7.45 Units / 16% ROI)
• The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 42 of their last 69 games (+13.10 Units / 16% ROI)
• Dylan Crews has hit the Total Bases Under in 19 of his last 24 games (+14.40 Units / 43% ROI)

Philadelphia Phillies vs Washington Nationals Prediction

Final Score: Philadelphia Phillies 5.51 vs Washington Nationals 3.43

Check out all our free picks on every MLB game daily in our MLB betting section.