Philadelphia Phillies at Detroit Tigers Pick For 6/25/2024

Philadelphia Phillies vs Detroit Tigers Details

• Date: June 25, 2024
• Venue: Comerica Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Ranger Suarez - Phillies
  • Tarik Skubal - Tigers

Betting Odds

Philadelphia Phillies vs Detroit Tigers Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Philadelphia Phillies vs Detroit Tigers Betting Preview

The Detroit Tigers are set to host the Philadelphia Phillies at Comerica Park on June 25, 2024, in an intriguing interleague matchup. The Tigers find themselves having a below-average season with a 36-42 record, while the Phillies are flying high with a stellar 52-26 record. Yesterday, the Phillies took the first game of the series, adding to their strong season performance.

The Tigers will send their ace, Tarik Skubal, to the mound. Skubal, a left-handed pitcher, is having an excellent season with an 8-3 record and a sparkling 2.50 ERA. According to THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, Skubal is the 2nd best starting pitcher in the league, making him an elite presence on the mound. Despite his low walk rate (5.0 BB%), Skubal faces a patient Phillies lineup that ranks 4th in walks. However, his strong control could neutralize this advantage.

On the other side, the Phillies will counter with Ranger Suarez, another lefty who has been exceptional with a 10-1 record and a minuscule 1.75 ERA this season. According to the projections, Suarez ranks as the 25th best starting pitcher in MLB, indicating he’s having a great season. However, his xFIP of 2.76 suggests he has been somewhat fortunate and could regress. Suarez's projections for today include 5.6 innings pitched, 2.6 earned runs, 5.1 strikeouts, 5.8 hits, and 1.8 walks, all of which are critical to monitor.

Offensively, the Tigers are struggling, ranking 27th in MLB according to the Power Rankings. Their offense is near the bottom in several key categories: 22nd in team batting average, 24th in home runs, and 28th in stolen bases. In contrast, the Phillies boast the 4th best offense, ranking 3rd in batting average, 5th in home runs, and 5th in stolen bases.

Over the last week, Bryce Harper has been on fire for the Phillies, hitting .500 with a 1.634 OPS, 4 home runs, and 10 RBIs in six games. For the Tigers, Riley Greene has been their standout hitter, posting a .350 batting average and a 1.085 OPS in the last seven games.

With the Tigers' bullpen ranking 15th and the Phillies' bullpen ranking 4th, Philadelphia holds an advantage in the late innings. Betting markets suggest this will be a closely contested game, with the Tigers at +100 (implied win probability of 48%) and the Phillies at -120 (implied win probability of 52%).

Quick Takes Philadelphia Phillies:

When estimating his batting average skill, Bryce Harper is projected as the 16th-best hitter in the game by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available. Batting average is the most common measure of a player's ability to generate hits.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Philadelphia Phillies' bullpen ranks as the 4th-best among all MLB teams.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Quick Takes Detroit Tigers:

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects that Tarik Skubal will tally an average of 17.1 outs in today's matchup.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, defense, and more.

Wenceel Perez is projected to bat 6th on the lineup card in this game, which would be a downgrade from his 79% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this year.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Andy Ibanez hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39% — 93rd percentile) and will be challenged by the game's 2nd-deepest CF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Detroit Tigers have hit the Game Total Over in 22 of their last 35 games (+7.50 Units / 19% ROI)
• The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 44 of their last 66 games (+20.75 Units / 18% ROI)
• Trea Turner has hit the RBIs Under in 29 of his last 35 games (+17.90 Units / 26% ROI)

Philadelphia Phillies vs Detroit Tigers Prediction

Final Score: Philadelphia Phillies 4.21 vs Detroit Tigers 4.21

Stay informed with the most recent MLB news and our analytics-driven MLB picks and predictions all season long.