Philadelphia Phillies at Boston Red Sox Best Bet – 6/13/2024

Philadelphia Phillies vs Boston Red Sox Details

• Date: June 13, 2024
• Venue: Fenway Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Aaron Nola - Phillies
  • Tanner Houck - Red Sox

Betting Odds

Philadelphia Phillies vs Boston Red Sox Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Philadelphia Phillies vs Boston Red Sox Betting Preview

The Boston Red Sox will host the Philadelphia Phillies at Fenway Park on June 13, 2024, in the third game of their interleague series. The Red Sox, sitting at an even 34-34, aim to bounce back from an average season so far. Meanwhile, the Phillies boast an impressive 46-21 record, solidifying their status as one of the top teams.

Tanner Houck, the #26 ranked starting pitcher according to the leading MLB projection system, THE BAT X, will get the nod for Boston. Houck has put up an excellent 1.91 ERA this season, though his 2.80 xFIP suggests some regression may be on the horizon. He's projected to pitch six innings, allowing 2.7 earned runs and striking out 4.9 batters. Despite his strong groundball tendencies (55% GB rate), Houck faces a daunting task against a powerful Phillies offense that ranks 6th in home runs.

Philadelphia counters with Aaron Nola, who has also had an outstanding year with a 2.77 ERA and is ranked #29 by THE BAT X. Nola's 3.47 xFIP indicates he might not maintain his current performance levels. Projections suggest he'll pitch 5.9 innings, allowing 2.9 earned runs while striking out 5.7 batters. Both pitchers' projections indicate that they might be in for a challenging outing.

Offensively, the Phillies hold a slight edge. They rank 5th overall in MLB offense, bolstered by a 6th-place ranking in both team batting average and home runs. Their lineup is led by Bryce Harper, who has been scorching hot over the last week with a .500 batting average and a 1.468 OPS in four games.

On the other side, the Red Sox's offense has also been strong, ranking 8th overall. David Hamilton has been their standout performer recently, hitting .385 with a 1.115 OPS over the last week.

With both teams projected to score an average of 4.25 runs, the betting markets anticipate a tightly contested matchup. However, with the Phillies' superior offense and bullpen, they might have the slight upper hand despite the even moneyline odds.

Quick Takes Philadelphia Phillies:

With 6 batters of the opposite hand in the opposing team's projected offense, Aaron Nola will have a tough matchup while lacking the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in this matchup.

• Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Johan Rojas's footspeed has increased this year. His 29.35 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last year sits at 29.81 ft/sec now.

• Fast players tend to get more hits as they leg out groundballs, more extra base hits, and more stolen bases.

Garrett Stubbs, the Phillies's expected catcher in today's game, grades out as a horrible pitch framer according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Pitch framing is a catcher's ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, "stealing" strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Quick Takes Boston Red Sox:

Tanner Houck was on point in his previous start and accumulated 9 strikeouts.

• A pitcher who was strong in his last outing may be sharp once again in his next outing.

David Hamilton has been lucky in regards to his batting average since the start of last season; his .241 figure is a good deal higher than his .119 Expected Batting Average, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

• xBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's batting average ability more accurately than actual batting average can.

The Boston Red Sox bullpen profiles as the worst in the majors, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Under in 30 of their last 55 games (+6.30 Units / 10% ROI)
• The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 37 of their last 53 games (+18.85 Units / 20% ROI)
• Edmundo Sosa has hit the Runs Over in 8 of his last 12 away games (+8.00 Units / 66% ROI)

Philadelphia Phillies vs Boston Red Sox Prediction

Final Score: Philadelphia Phillies 4.54 vs Boston Red Sox 4.58

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