Philadelphia Phillies at Baltimore Orioles Best Bet – 6/15/2024

Philadelphia Phillies vs Baltimore Orioles Details

• Date: June 15, 2024
• Venue: Oriole Park at Camden Yards
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Taijuan Walker - Phillies
  • Grayson Rodriguez - Orioles

Betting Odds

Philadelphia Phillies vs Baltimore Orioles Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Philadelphia Phillies vs Baltimore Orioles Betting Preview

On June 15, 2024, the Baltimore Orioles will host the Philadelphia Phillies for the second game of their interleague series at Oriole Park at Camden Yards. Both teams are having outstanding seasons, with the Orioles boasting a 45-24 record and the Phillies slightly better at 47-22. This matchup features two of the best offenses in MLB, with the Orioles ranking 3rd and the Phillies 4th according to THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system.

Grayson Rodriguez, the Orioles' right-handed starter, enters the game with a solid 7-2 record and a 3.27 ERA over 11 starts this season. According to advanced-stat Power Rankings, Rodriguez is the 44th-best starting pitcher out of approximately 350 in MLB, underscoring his effectiveness. Despite being a high-flyball pitcher (39% FB), Rodriguez is projected to allow only 2.4 earned runs and strike out 5.9 batters on average today.

On the mound for the Phillies is Taijuan Walker, another righty, whose season has been less impressive. With a 3-1 record and a 5.40 ERA over 8 starts, Walker has struggled, although his 4.78 xFIP suggests some bad luck. His projections for today's game are less favorable: 3.3 earned runs, 3.9 strikeouts, and 5.9 hits allowed over 5.3 innings.

Offensively, both teams are potent. Baltimore leads MLB with 107 home runs and ranks 10th in team batting average. Gunnar Henderson has been red-hot for the Orioles over the past week, hitting .381 with a 1.244 OPS, 2 home runs, and 7 runs scored in 5 games. The Phillies counter with Kyle Schwarber, who has been even hotter, batting .450 with a 1.342 OPS, 2 home runs, and 6 RBIs in his last 5 games.

Baltimore's bullpen ranks 16th in MLB, but their average rating doesn't reflect their strong season. The Phillies, on the other hand, have a top-tier bullpen ranked 5th, which could play a crucial role, especially if Walker exits early.

With the Orioles installed as big favorites at -175, their implied win probability sits at 62%. The Phillies, coming in as underdogs at +155, reflect an implied win probability of 38%. Given their robust offense and Rodriguez's solid season, Baltimore's high implied team total of 4.81 runs makes sense. Despite Walker's struggles, Philadelphia's powerful lineup ensures this will be a game to watch.

Quick Takes Philadelphia Phillies:

Taijuan Walker is projected to strikeout 3.8 batters in today's game, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, and more.

Nick Castellanos is penciled in 2nd in the lineup today, which would be an upgrade from his 64% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this season.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

Kyle Schwarber pulls a lot of his flyballs (40.2% — 98th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards MLB's shallowest RF fences today.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Baltimore Orioles:

Grayson Rodriguez has relied on his curveball 6.4% more often this season (14.6%) than he did last year (8.2%).

• Because curveballs are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.

This season, there has been a decline in Ryan Mountcastle's quickness with his Statcast Sprint Speed dropping from 28.2 ft/sec last year to 27.46 ft/sec currently.

• Slow players tend to get fewer hits because they can't beat out groundballs, fewer extra base hits, and fewer stolen bases.

The Baltimore Orioles have been the luckiest offense in MLB this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to negatively regress in the future

• When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

Game Trends

• The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Run Line in 37 of their last 61 games (+19.40 Units / 27% ROI)
• The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 44 of their last 66 games (+18.40 Units / 22% ROI)
• Ryan O'Hearn has hit the Total Bases Under in 15 of his last 17 games at home (+11.95 Units / 42% ROI)

Philadelphia Phillies vs Baltimore Orioles Prediction

Final Score: Philadelphia Phillies 4.15 vs Baltimore Orioles 5.22

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