Oakland Athletics VS Texas Rangers Betting Pick & Preview – 04/09/2024

Oakland Athletics vs Texas Rangers Overview

• Date: April 9, 2024
• Venue: Globe Life Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Alex Wood - Athletics
  • Nathan Eovaldi - Rangers
• Umpire:
• Run Line: Athletics 1.5 -110, Rangers -1.5 -110
• Money Line: Athletics 200, Rangers -230
• Total (Over/Under):9 100

Oakland Athletics vs Texas Rangers Win Probabilities

Implied Win %:

• Oakland Athletics - 32%
• Texas Rangers - 68%

Projected Win %:

• Oakland Athletics - 32.56%
• Texas Rangers - 67.44%

Oakland Athletics vs Texas Rangers Game Preview & Prediction

In an American League West matchup, the Texas Rangers will take on the Oakland Athletics on April 9, 2024, at Globe Life Field. The Rangers, with a season record of 6-4, are having a great season so far, while the Athletics, with a record of 3-7, are struggling.

The Rangers are projected to start right-handed pitcher Nathan Eovaldi, who has been impressive this season. In his two starts, Eovaldi has a win-loss record of 1-0 with an excellent ERA of 1.38. However, his 3.69 xFIP suggests that he may have been lucky and could regress in future performances. Eovaldi is projected to pitch around 5.7 innings, allowing an average of 2.3 earned runs, striking out 7.3 batters, but also allowing 4.7 hits and 1.7 walks on average.

On the other hand, the Athletics are projected to start left-handed pitcher Alex Wood, who has struggled this season. In his two starts, Wood has a win-loss record of 0-1 with a high ERA of 9.72. However, his 4.57 xFIP suggests that he has been unlucky and could perform better going forward. Wood is projected to pitch around 4.5 innings, allowing an average of 2.6 earned runs, striking out 3.8 batters, but also allowing 4.8 hits and 1.6 walks on average.

The Rangers have a potent offense, ranking as the second-best in MLB this season. They also rank second in team batting average and fifth in team home runs. However, their stolen base ranking is low, sitting at 25th in MLB. The Athletics, on the other hand, have struggled offensively, ranking as the 26th best team in MLB. They rank last in team batting average but fifth in stolen bases.

Based on the current odds, the Rangers are the betting favorites with a moneyline of -210, indicating an implied win probability of 65%. The Athletics are the underdogs with a moneyline of +180 and an implied win probability of 35%. THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, also projects the Rangers as the favorites with a win probability of 63%.

The Rangers' offense has been boosted by the performance of their best hitter, who will be mentioned later in this article. The Athletics' best hitter, Abraham Toro, has been productive over the last seven games, recording a batting average of .375 and an OPS of 1.295.

The game total for today's matchup is set at 9.0 runs, indicating a high-scoring game. THE BAT X projects the Rangers to score an average of 4.93 runs, while the Athletics are projected to score 3.93 runs.

With the Rangers' strong offense, solid bullpen, and Nathan Eovaldi's impressive performances, they have the edge in this game. However, baseball can be unpredictable, and the Athletics will be looking to turn their season around. It should be an exciting matchup between these two AL West teams.

Quick Takes Oakland Athletics:

The Texas Rangers have 6 hitters in the projected offense that will hold the platoon advantage against Alex Wood in this game, which is especially troublesome given his large platoon split.

• Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Seth Brown is an extreme flyball batter and squares off against the strong outfield defense of Texas (#3-best of all teams on the slate).

• This player's skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team's defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Seth Brown hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (40% — 98th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards MLB's 6th-deepest CF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Texas Rangers:

Out of all the teams playing today, the 3rd-strongest infield defense is that of the the Texas Rangers.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.

Jonah Heim has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this year (100% of the time), but he is penciled in 5th in the lineup in this game.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

Jonah Heim, the Rangers's expected catcher in today's game, profiles as an elite pitch framer according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Pitch framing is a catcher's ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, "stealing" strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Game Trends

• The Texas Rangers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 89 of their last 161 games (+23.78 Units / 11% ROI)
• The Oakland Athletics have hit the Team Total Under in 86 of their last 150 games (+13.28 Units / 8% ROI)
• J.D. Davis has hit the Hits Under in 13 of his last 22 away games (+4.75 Units / 18% ROI)

Final Score Prediction: Oakland Athletics 3.89 vs Texas Rangers 5.39

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