Oakland Athletics vs Minnesota Twins Betting Pick & Preview – 6/13/2024

Oakland Athletics vs Minnesota Twins Details

• Date: June 13, 2024
• Venue: Target Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Luis Medina - Athletics
  • Joe Ryan - Twins

Betting Odds

Oakland Athletics vs Minnesota Twins Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Oakland Athletics vs Minnesota Twins Betting Preview

The Minnesota Twins are set to host the Oakland Athletics in an American League matchup at Target Field on June 13, 2024. The Twins, with a solid 36-32 record, are having an above-average season and are looking to continue their winning ways after a high-scoring 17-9 victory against the Rockies on June 12. On the other hand, the Athletics, at 26-44, are enduring a tough season and are coming off a narrow 5-4 loss to the Padres.

Joe Ryan will take the mound for the Twins. Ryan, who is ranked as the 16th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced-stat Power Rankings, has been impressive this season with a 3.30 ERA and a high strikeout rate (27.4%). In his last start on June 7, he pitched a strong 7 innings, allowing just 2 earned runs with 8 strikeouts. THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, projects Ryan to pitch 6.1 innings and allow 2.1 earned runs on average today, which bodes well for the Twins.

For the Athletics, Luis Medina will start. Medina has struggled in his limited appearances this season, posting a 5.23 ERA over two starts. His peripheral stats suggest he has been fortunate thus far, and his projections for today are not optimistic. Medina is expected to pitch 4.6 innings and allow 2.9 earned runs, which could spell trouble for the Athletics.

Offensively, the Twins boast an average lineup, ranking 17th in MLB, with notable power as evidenced by their 10th place ranking in home runs. Willi Castro has been a key contributor, posting a .260 batting average and a .771 OPS. Meanwhile, the Athletics' offense ranks 28th, struggling with consistency despite their 5th place ranking in home runs. Brent Rooker has been a bright spot, hitting .263 with a .868 OPS and 13 home runs.

Both teams feature strong bullpens, with the Twins ranked 7th and the Athletics surprisingly 2nd in MLB. However, the projections heavily favor the Twins, who are expected to score 4.98 runs compared to the Athletics' 3.49.

Overall, with Joe Ryan on the mound and a more balanced offensive lineup, the Twins are the clear favorites to take the first game of this series. Betting lines reflect this, with the Twins carrying a -235 moneyline and an implied win probability of 68%. THE BAT X aligns with this, giving the Twins a 68% chance to secure the win.

Quick Takes Oakland Athletics:

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Luis Medina to throw 83 pitches in this matchup (11th-least of all pitchers today), considering both his underlying tendencies and the matchup.

• Pitchers who throw relatively few pitches are more likely to get pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.

Miguel Andujar's quickness has fallen off this year. His 27.63 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last year sits at 25.54 ft/sec now.

• Slow players tend to get fewer hits because they can't beat out groundballs, fewer extra base hits, and fewer stolen bases.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Oakland Athletics' bullpen profiles as the 2nd-best among all major league teams.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Quick Takes Minnesota Twins:

It may come as a surprise, but fastballs are generally a pitcher's least effective pitch. Joe Ryan has used his secondary pitches 7.4% more often this year (50.5%) than he did last season (43.1%).

• A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.

Oakland's 3rd-worst outfield defense on the slate today creates a favorable matchup for Byron Buxton, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs.

• This player's skill set matches up well with the opposing team's defensive weakness, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Byron Buxton pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (41.1% — 99th percentile) and will have to hit them out towards baseball's 11th-deepest LF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 25 of their last 42 games (+6.54 Units / 13% ROI)
• The Oakland Athletics have hit the Team Total Under in 22 of their last 32 away games (+10.75 Units / 27% ROI)
• JJ Bleday has hit the Singles Under in 30 of his last 42 games (+7.00 Units / 9% ROI)

Oakland Athletics vs Minnesota Twins Prediction

Final Score: Oakland Athletics 3.49 vs Minnesota Twins 4.98

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