Oakland Athletics at Houston Astros Pick & Prediction – 5/15/2024

Oakland Athletics vs Houston Astros Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: May 15, 2024
• Venue: Minute Maid Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Aaron Brooks - Athletics
  • Framber Valdez - Astros

Betting Odds

Oakland Athletics vs Houston Astros Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Oakland Athletics vs Houston Astros Betting Preview

The Houston Astros are set to host the Oakland Athletics in an American League West matchup on May 15th, 2024, at Minute Maid Park. The Astros, with a record of 17-25 this season, are having a terrible season, while the Athletics, with a record of 19-25, are struggling as well.

On the mound, the Astros are projected to start left-handed pitcher Framber Valdez, who has been ranked as the #27 best starting pitcher in MLB according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings. Valdez has started five games this year, boasting a win/loss record of 2-1 and an ERA of 3.64, which is considered good. However, his 4.21 xERA suggests that he has been lucky this season and may perform worse going forward. Valdez projects to pitch an average of 6.0 innings, allowing 2.3 earned runs, striking out 6.3 batters, but giving up 5.4 hits and 1.9 walks, which are not favorable statistics.

Opposing Valdez will be right-handed pitcher Aaron Brooks of the Athletics, who is considered one of the worst pitchers in MLB according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings. Brooks is projected to pitch an average of 5.0 innings, allowing 3.6 earned runs, striking out 2.8 batters, and giving up 6.3 hits and 1.7 walks. These projections indicate a challenging outing for Brooks.

In terms of offense, the Astros rank as the 5th best in MLB this season, showcasing their underlying talent regardless of their current year-to-date performance. They rank 14th in team batting average, 9th in team home runs, and 12th in team stolen bases. On the other hand, the Athletics rank as the 17th best offense in MLB, with a low team batting average ranking of 30th, but a strong team stolen bases ranking of 5th.

Considering the betting odds, the Astros are heavily favored with a moneyline of -240, implying a win probability of 68%, while the Athletics are the underdogs with a moneyline of +205 and an implied win probability of 32%.

Overall, the Astros have the advantage in terms of pitching, offensive rankings, and betting odds. However, baseball is known for its unpredictability, and anything can happen in this game.

Quick Takes Oakland Athletics:

Among all the teams on the slate today, the worst outfield defense belongs to the Oakland Athletics.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.

Zack Gelof has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this year (84% of the time), but he is projected to hit 7th in the batting order in today's game.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

The Oakland Athletics have 5 bats in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Shea Langeliers, Max Schuemann, Zack Gelof, Brent Rooker, J.D. Davis).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Quick Takes Houston Astros:

Framber Valdez has been granted an above-average leash since the start of last season, recording 3.1 more adjusted pitches-per-game than the average starter.

• Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

Alex Bregman has gotten much quicker this season, improving from last year's 26.19 ft/sec to 26.65 ft/sec now (according to Statcast's Sprint Speed metric).

• Fast players tend to get more hits as they leg out groundballs, more extra base hits, and more stolen bases.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Houston Astros' bullpen profiles as the 10th-best among all teams in Major League Baseball.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Houston Astros have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 18 of their last 26 games (+7.80 Units / 25% ROI)
• The Oakland Athletics have hit the Moneyline in 18 of their last 36 games (+8.00 Units / 21% ROI)
• Brent Rooker has hit the Home Runs Over in 6 of his last 22 games (+9.90 Units / 45% ROI)

Oakland Athletics vs Houston Astros Prediction

Final Score: Oakland Athletics 3.63 vs Houston Astros 5.8

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