New York Yankees vs Pittsburgh Pirates Pick – 4/4/2025

New York Yankees vs Pittsburgh Pirates Betting Preview

On April 4, 2025, the Pittsburgh Pirates will host the New York Yankees at PNC Park in what marks the first game of their interleague series. The Pirates are struggling this season with a 2-5 record, while the Yankees are off to a strong start at 4-2. Recently, the Yankees have been particularly dominant, with their best hitter contributing significantly, including 14 RBIs and 5 home runs over the past week. Meanwhile, the Pirates are trying to find their rhythm, as their offense has struggled early on.

On the mound, the Pirates are projected to start Mitch Keller, who has shown potential with a stellar 1.50 ERA in his lone start this season. However, his 3.14 xFIP suggests that he might not maintain that level of performance. Keller is expected to pitch around 5.4 innings today, allowing approximately 3.0 earned runs, which is below average. In contrast, the Yankees will counter with Max Fried, an elite left-handed pitcher ranked 9th in MLB. Fried has a solid 3.86 ERA and is projected to pitch 6.1 innings, allowing just 1.9 earned runs, making him a tough challenge for the Pirates' struggling lineup.

The Pirates offense has been particularly weak this season, ranking poorly in home runs and batting average, while the Yankees rank 1st in home runs and boast the best offense in MLB. This stark contrast in offensive capabilities could give the Yankees a significant advantage in this matchup. With the Yankees favored at -155, the projections suggest they will likely come away with a victory, while the Pirates, sitting at +135, face an uphill battle to turn their season around.

Quick Takes New York Yankees:

Because flyball pitchers have a significant edge over flyball bats, Max Fried and his 52.6% underlying FB% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be in a favorable spot in today's matchup going up against 3 opposing FB bats.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

The switch-hitting Oswaldo Cabrera will get to bat from his strong side today against Mitch Keller.

• Right-handed hitters perform better against left-handed pitchers (and visa-versa). This can have a huge impact on whether a hitter will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Austin Wells has a 75th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (33.3%) and will be challenged by the league's 11th-deepest LF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Pittsburgh Pirates:

The New York Yankees have 6 bats in the projected offense that will hold the platoon advantage against Mitch Keller in this game.

• Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Game Trends

• The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 39 of their last 68 games at home (+8.55 Units / 11% ROI)
• The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Over in 72 of their last 127 games (+16.45 Units / 12% ROI)
• Paul Goldschmidt has hit the Runs Under in 17 of his last 25 games (+5.45 Units / 14% ROI)

• Date: April 4, 2025
• Venue: PNC Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Max Fried - Yankees
  • Mitch Keller - Pirates

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