New York Yankees vs Los Angeles Angels Prediction & Picks 5/28/2024

New York Yankees vs Los Angeles Angels Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: May 28, 2024
• Venue: Angel Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Nestor Cortes - Yankees
  • Griffin Canning - Angels

Betting Odds

New York Yankees vs Los Angeles Angels Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

New York Yankees vs Los Angeles Angels Betting Preview

On May 28, 2024, the Los Angeles Angels will face off against the New York Yankees at Angel Stadium. The Angels will be playing as the home team, while the Yankees will be the away team. This American League matchup is the first game in the series between these two teams.

The Angels are having a tough season with a record of 20-33. Their offense ranks as the 11th best in MLB, boasting the 3rd most home runs in the league. However, their bullpen is considered the worst in MLB according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings. The Angels will be looking to turn their season around with Griffin Canning taking the mound. Canning, a right-handed pitcher, has had a mediocre season so far, with a 2-4 record and a 5.05 ERA.

The Yankees, on the other hand, are having a stellar season with a record of 37-18. Their offense ranks as the best in MLB, despite having a low team batting average. They have a strong lineup led by their best hitter, Aaron Judge. The Yankees' bullpen, though not the strongest, is ranked 27th in MLB. Nestor Cortes, a left-handed pitcher, will start for the Yankees. Cortes has been performing well this season with a 3-4 record and a 3.29 ERA.

According to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, Canning is one of the worst starting pitchers in MLB, ranking at #197 out of approximately 350 pitchers. In contrast, Cortes is considered a good pitcher, ranking at #49. However, it's worth noting that Cortes's xFIP suggests he may perform worse going forward.

The Angels will rely on their powerful offense, while the Yankees will look to capitalize on Canning's struggles. The Game Total is set at 8.5 runs, indicating an average expectation for scoring in this game.

In terms of betting odds, the Yankees are the favorites with a moneyline of -175, giving them an implied win probability of 61%. The Angels, considered the underdogs, have a moneyline of +150, with an implied win probability of 39%.

With the Yankees having a higher projected win probability than their implied win probability, they seem to be the team to watch in this game. However, anything can happen in baseball, and the Angels will be motivated to turn their season around. It will be an exciting matchup between these two teams with contrasting seasons.

Quick Takes New York Yankees:

Nestor Cortes is an extreme flyball pitcher (44.2% FB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) and will be disadvantaged pitching in the #7 HR venue among all parks in this matchup.

• This pitcher's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the New York Yankees' bullpen ranks as the 4th-worst among all the teams in Major League Baseball.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Quick Takes Los Angeles Angels:

Extreme flyball bats like Luis Rengifo tend to be more successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Nestor Cortes.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Kevin Pillar pulls many of his flyballs (37.3% — 95th percentile) and will be challenged by the game's 10th-deepest LF fences today.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Los Angeles Angels have hit the Game Total Over in 13 of their last 19 games at home (+7.35 Units / 35% ROI)
• The New York Yankees have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 22 of their last 33 games (+12.20 Units / 23% ROI)
• Kevin Pillar has hit the Hits Over in his last 12 games (+12.00 Units / 59% ROI)

New York Yankees vs Los Angeles Angels Prediction

Final Score: New York Yankees 5.8 vs Los Angeles Angels 4.41

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.