New York Yankees vs Detroit Tigers Prediction – 4/9/2025

New York Yankees vs Detroit Tigers Betting Preview

On April 9, 2025, the Detroit Tigers will host the New York Yankees at Comerica Park in what promises to be an intriguing matchup. This has been a competitive series, but the Tigers have taken both games so far. The stakes are high as both teams look to solidify their positions early in the season. The Tigers currently sit at 7-4, while the Yankees are slightly behind at 6-5.

Detroit's Jack Flaherty is projected to take the mound, boasting a solid 2.38 ERA this season. However, his 3.64 xFIP suggests he may have been a bit fortunate, indicating potential regression. Flaherty’s high flyball rate (41%) could be a concern against a powerful Yankees lineup that has already hit 25 home runs this year, ranking 2nd in MLB. The projections indicate that Flaherty will average 5.5 innings, allowing 2.2 earned runs, and striking out 6.8 batters.

On the other side, New York’s Max Fried, an elite left-handed pitcher ranked 9th in MLB, has been impressive with a 2.61 ERA and a solid 49% groundball rate. Fried's ability to limit walks (5.8 BB%) could neutralize the Tigers' patient offense, which ranks 5th in walks this season. Fried is projected to pitch 6.0 innings, allowing just 1.7 earned runs.

Offensively, the Tigers rank 4th in MLB, while the Yankees lead the league. With the Yankees' strength in power hitting and the Tigers' reliance on their offensive depth, this game could hinge on Flaherty's ability to manage the Yankees' potent lineup. The low Game Total of 7.0 runs suggests a tight contest, making the Tigers' underdog status with a +125 moneyline worth considering.

Quick Takes New York Yankees:

Max Fried's higher usage percentage of his fastball this year (58.8 compared to 49.1% last year) is not ideal considering they are generally much less effective than breaking or off-speed pitches.

• Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.

Cody Bellinger has been cold of late, with his seasonal exit velocity of 90.6-mph dropping to 83.7-mph in the past 7 days.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

The New York Yankees have 3 bats in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Jazz Chisholm Jr., Aaron Judge, Trent Grisham).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Quick Takes Detroit Tigers:

The Detroit Tigers infield defense projects as the 3rd-weakest out of all the teams today.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.

Extreme groundball batters like Javier Baez generally hit worse against extreme groundball pitchers like Max Fried.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Detroit Tigers' bullpen projects as the 8th-best out of all teams in the majors.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Detroit Tigers have hit the Run Line in 56 of their last 86 games (+23.00 Units / 19% ROI)
• The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Over in 65 of their last 114 games (+16.15 Units / 13% ROI)
• Ben Rice has hit the Total Bases Over in 7 of his last 9 games (+5.25 Units / 46% ROI)

• Date: April 9, 2025
• Venue: Comerica Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Max Fried - Yankees
  • Jack Flaherty - Tigers

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