Yankees vs Guardians Game 3 Prediction & Picks 10/17/2024

• Date: October 17, 2024
• Venue: Progressive Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Clarke Schmidt - Yankees
  • Matthew Boyd - Guardians

Yankees vs Guardians Game 3 Betting Odds

New York Yankees vs Cleveland Guardians Game 3 Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

New York Yankees vs Cleveland Guardians Game 3 Betting Preview

As the Cleveland Guardians prepare to host the New York Yankees on October 17, 2024, the stakes are high in this American League Championship series matchup. With the Yankees leading this series 2-0, the Guardians are facing a must-win game at home tonight. The Yankees, boasting the 3rd-best offense in MLB, will look to capitalize on their power against Matthew Boyd, who is known for inducing flyballs. The Yankees' lineup, ranked 2nd in home runs, could pose a significant threat to Boyd, who is projected to pitch 4.1 innings and allow 1.8 earned runs on average according to THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system.

Boyd, however, has been effective this season with a 2.72 ERA, although his 3.89 xFIP suggests some luck has been involved. The Guardians, ranked 17th in offense, have been average overall but excel in stealing bases, ranking 5th. Their ability to make contact could challenge Clarke Schmidt, the Yankees' starter with a 2.85 ERA, who is projected to pitch 4.2 innings. Schmidt's 3.92 xFIP also indicates he's been a bit fortunate.

The Guardians' bullpen, ranked 6th, is slightly better than the Yankees' 7th-ranked bullpen, offering a marginal edge in the latter innings. Brayan Rocchio has been a bright spot for Cleveland, tallying a .500 batting average and a 1.248 OPS over the last week, which could be pivotal against Schmidt's high-strikeout approach.

Betting markets view this as a close contest, with the Yankees having a slight edge with a 51% implied win probability. However, considering the Guardians' bullpen and Rocchio's recent form, Cleveland might have more in their arsenal than the odds suggest.

Quick Takes New York Yankees:

The Cleveland Guardians have 8 bats in the projected batting order that will hold the platoon advantage against Clarke Schmidt in this matchup.

• Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.

The New York Yankees (23% K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) are projected to have the most strikeout-prone set of hitters of all teams today.

• THE BAT X analyzes each player in today's specific lineup to figure out which teams have the most inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Quick Takes Cleveland Guardians:

Among every team on the slate today, the strongest infield defense is that of the the Cleveland Guardians.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.

Jose Ramirez is an extreme flyball batter and matches up with the strong outfield defense of New York (#3-best on the slate today).

• This player's skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team's defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Cleveland Guardians' bullpen ranks as the 6th-best among all MLB teams.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 29 of their last 46 games (+14.50 Units / 28% ROI)
• The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Over in 65 of their last 113 games (+16.00 Units / 13% ROI)
• Bo Naylor has hit the Total Bases Under in 16 of his last 23 games (+9.00 Units / 34% ROI)

New York Yankees vs Cleveland Guardians Game 3 Prediction

Final Score: New York Yankees 4.33 vs Cleveland Guardians 4

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