Yankees vs Guardians Game 5 Betting Pick & Preview – 10/19/2024

• Date: October 19, 2024
• Venue: Progressive Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Carlos Rodon - Yankees
  • Tanner Bibee - Guardians

Yankees vs Guardians Game 5 Betting Odds

New York Yankees vs Cleveland Guardians Game 5 Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

New York Yankees vs Cleveland Guardians Game 5 Betting Preview

As the Cleveland Guardians host the New York Yankees on October 19, 2024, at Progressive Field for Game 5 of their American League League Championship Series, the Yankees have a chance to close out this series while the Guardians look to fight another day. The Yankees hold a slight edge in the betting markets with a -120 moneyline, implying a 52% chance of victory, while the Guardians sit at +100, translating to a 48% implied win probability. Both teams have shown resilience throughout the season, and this matchup promises to be another nail-biter.

Cleveland's right-hander Tanner Bibee takes the mound, facing a daunting Yankees lineup that ranks 3rd in overall offense and 2nd in home runs this season. Bibee, ranked 41st among starting pitchers according to THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, has demonstrated solid control with a low walk rate of 6.2%. Despite his high flyball tendencies, his ability to limit free passes could neutralize the Yankees' patience at the plate, as they lead MLB in walks.

On the other side, the Yankees counter with lefty Carlos Rodon, who has been steady with a 3.96 ERA and a 16-9 record across 32 starts. Rodon's challenge will be to navigate a Guardians lineup that excels in speed, ranking 5th in stolen bases, and packs a punch with the 10th most home runs in MLB. The Guardians' bullpen, ranked 1st in the league, could be a deciding factor if the game remains close late.

Recent form sees Kyle Manzardo and Giancarlo Stanton as key offensive contributors for their respective teams. Manzardo boasts a .364 average and a 1.091 OPS over the past week, while Stanton has been on a tear with a 1.210 OPS and three home runs in the same span.

Quick Takes New York Yankees:

Out of every team playing today, the best infield defense belongs to the New York Yankees.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.

The Cleveland Guardians have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Anthony Rizzo stands a good chance of never facing a bullpen mismatch all game.

• Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.

Gleyber Torres has a 93rd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (37.8%) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the game's 6th-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Cleveland Guardians:

Tallying 92.3 adjusted pitches per outing this year on average, Tanner Bibee falls in the 78th percentile.

• Pitchers who average more pitches per game are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

New York's #2-ranked outfield defense of all teams on the slate poses a formidable challenge for Andres Gimenez, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs.

• This player's skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team's defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

The Cleveland Guardians projected batting order projects as the weakest of all teams today in terms of overall batting skill.

• A pitcher who faces a weak opposing offense will be more likely to exceed his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Game Trends

• The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 31 of their last 53 games (+12.05 Units / 21% ROI)
• The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Over in 67 of their last 115 games (+18.00 Units / 14% ROI)
• Anthony Volpe has hit the Hits Over in 16 of his last 20 away games (+10.60 Units / 29% ROI)

New York Yankees vs Cleveland Guardians Game 5 Prediction

Final Score: New York Yankees 4.70 vs Cleveland Guardians 4.22

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