New York Yankees at Philadelphia Phillies Best Bet – 7/31/2024

New York Yankees vs Philadelphia Phillies Details

• Date: July 31, 2024
• Venue: Citizens Bank Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Nestor Cortes - Yankees
  • Cristopher Sanchez - Phillies

Betting Odds

New York Yankees vs Philadelphia Phillies Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

New York Yankees vs Philadelphia Phillies Betting Preview

Two of the top teams in baseball clash on July 31, 2024, as the Philadelphia Phillies host the New York Yankees at Citizens Bank Park. Both teams are enjoying stellar seasons, with the Phillies boasting a 65-41 record and the Yankees not far behind at 63-45. This Interleague matchup is the third game in the series between these two powerhouses.

The Phillies are projected to start Cristopher Sanchez, a left-handed pitcher who has been reliable for Philadelphia this season. Sanchez will face off against another lefty, Nestor Cortes, who takes the mound for the Yankees. Both pitchers will have their hands full with potent offenses on the other side.

Philadelphia's offense ranks 3rd in MLB in team batting average, 6th in home runs, and 4th in stolen bases, showcasing a well-rounded attack. Kyle Schwarber has been particularly hot over the last week, hitting .350 with three home runs and eight RBIs, contributing to a 1.419 OPS over six games. The Phillies' offensive prowess should give Sanchez a solid cushion to work with.

On the other side, the Yankees' offense is no slouch, ranking 2nd in home runs but only 12th in batting average and 29th in stolen bases. Aaron Judge has been on fire recently, with a .400 batting average, four home runs, and 10 RBIs over his last six games, resulting in a 1.650 OPS. Cortes will need to navigate through a dangerous Phillies lineup to keep New York in the game.

THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, gives the Phillies a slight edge in this matchup, thanks to their balanced offensive attack and home-field advantage. However, the Yankees' power-hitting capabilities mean they are never out of a game, making this a must-watch contest for fans and bettors alike.

Quick Takes New York Yankees:

Nestor Cortes is an extreme flyball pitcher (44.2% FB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) and is stuck pitching in the #6 HR venue in the league in this game.

• This pitcher's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Gleyber Torres has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this year (58% of the time), but he is projected to hit 1st on the lineup card in this game.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

Giancarlo Stanton pulls many of his flyballs (33.7% — 78th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the league's 10th-shallowest LF fences today.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Philadelphia Phillies:

With 7 bats of opposing handedness in the opposing team's projected offense, Cristopher Sanchez will not have the upper hand while lacking the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in this outing.

• Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.

The New York Yankees have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Bryce Harper has a strong chance of holding the advantage against every reliever all game.

• Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.

The 4th-best projected lineup of all teams on the slate today in terms of overall offensive ability is that of the Philadelphia Phillies.

• A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Game Trends

• The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 57 of their last 92 games (+19.65 Units / 12% ROI)
• The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Over in 30 of their last 44 games (+16.40 Units / 34% ROI)
• Austin Hays has hit the Total Bases Over in 17 of his last 25 games (+10.80 Units / 32% ROI)

New York Yankees vs Philadelphia Phillies Prediction

Final Score: New York Yankees 4.83 vs Philadelphia Phillies 5.17

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