New York Yankees at Kansas City Royals Best Bet – 6/13/2024

New York Yankees vs Kansas City Royals Details

• Date: June 13, 2024
• Venue: Kauffman Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Nestor Cortes - Yankees
  • Alec Marsh - Royals

Betting Odds

New York Yankees vs Kansas City Royals Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

New York Yankees vs Kansas City Royals Betting Preview

In an important American League matchup, the Kansas City Royals will host the New York Yankees at Kauffman Stadium on June 13, 2024. Both teams are performing well this season, with the Royals sporting a 39-30 record and the Yankees boasting an impressive 49-21 record, making this series crucial for both squads.

The Yankees are coming off a commanding 11-5 victory over the Royals on June 12. Aaron Judge was phenomenal, continuing his hot streak by recording 4 home runs and 8 RBIs over the last week, and hitting .435 with an OPS of 1.579. The Royals, meanwhile, saw Kyle Isbel lead their offense over the last seven games, hitting .412 with an OPS of 1.038.

Nestor Cortes will take the mound for the Yankees. The left-handed pitcher has a 3.68 ERA over 14 starts this year, which is solid, and he’s ranked as the 52nd best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced-stat Power Rankings. However, he allowed 4 earned runs over 5 innings in his last start. His projections indicate he will pitch 5.5 innings, allowing 3.1 earned runs and striking out 5.0 batters on average.

Kansas City will counter with Alec Marsh, who has a 4.05 ERA through 11 starts this season but has been fortunate as his expected ERA (xERA) sits at 4.70. He’s ranked 257th out of approximately 350 pitchers, showing he's struggled compared to his peers. Marsh’s projections suggest a challenging outing, forecasting 4.5 innings pitched with 3.3 earned runs, 3.9 strikeouts, and 5.3 hits.

Offensively, New York holds the edge, ranking 2nd in MLB for overall offense, 2nd in home runs, and 4th in batting average. Kansas City, however, ranks a respectable 9th in overall offense and 7th in batting average but possesses a league-best in stolen bases ranking 5th.

The Royals' bullpen struggles, ranking 23rd in MLB, could be a factor against the Yankees’ 16th ranked bullpen. The Game Total for today’s matchup is set at a high 10.5 runs, suggesting plenty of scoring.

THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, gives the Yankees a 60% chance to win, while their implied odds are at 59%, indicating slight value. Conversely, Kansas City's chances are projected at 40% against an implied probability of 41%, showing minimal backing for a surprising underdog win. With an exciting clash ahead, all signs point to the Yankees’ favor in this pivotal game.

Quick Takes New York Yankees:

The Kansas City Royals have 9 hitters in the projected offense that will hold the platoon advantage against Nestor Cortes in this game.

• Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Kansas City's #1-ranked outfield defense on the slate poses a formidable challenge for Austin Wells, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs.

• This player's skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team's defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Gleyber Torres has a 90th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.2%) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards MLB's deepest RF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Kansas City Royals:

Out of every team on the slate today, the best infield defense is that of the Kansas City Royals.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.

Nelson Velazquez has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this season (52% of the time), but he is projected to hit 4th in the lineup in this game.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

Today’s version of the Royals projected lineup is a bit watered down, as their .307 the leading projection system (THE BAT X) wOBA is considerably below their .318 overall projected rate.

• Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today's lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren't accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Game Trends

• The Kansas City Royals have hit the Run Line in 39 of their last 64 games (+10.04 Units / 11% ROI)
• The New York Yankees have hit the Run Line in 35 of their last 53 games (+21.90 Units / 35% ROI)
• Anthony Volpe has hit the Total Bases Over in 13 of his last 19 away games (+9.05 Units / 45% ROI)

New York Yankees vs Kansas City Royals Prediction

Final Score: New York Yankees 6.56 vs Kansas City Royals 5.01

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.