New York Mets vs Washington Nationals Pick – 4/26/2025

New York Mets vs Washington Nationals Betting Preview

As the Washington Nationals and the New York Mets meet for the second game of their series on April 26, 2025, the stakes remain high for both teams. The Nationals enter the matchup struggling with a record of 12-14, while the Mets are enjoying a successful season at 18-8. In their last game, the Mets fell to the Nats in a surprising outcome in the National League East.

On the mound, Washington is projected to start Brad Lord, who has had a challenging season thus far with a 0-2 record and an ERA of 4.73. While his 3.78 FIP indicates he could be due for a turnaround, his peripherals suggest he may have been lucky to achieve his current numbers. Lord projects to pitch just 4.9 innings today and is expected to allow around 2.7 earned runs, which, combined with his 5.36 SIERA, could put the Nationals in a tough spot against a potent Mets lineup.

Clay Holmes, on the other hand, is set to take the mound for New York. With a record of 2-1 and an impressive ERA of 3.16, Holmes ranks as the 19th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced metrics. He is projected to pitch 5.7 innings today, allowing approximately 2.3 earned runs. Despite his elite strikeout potential, he faces a Nationals offense that has been among the least strikeout-prone in the league, which could play to Washington's advantage.

The current betting lines favor the Mets, who carry a moneyline of -170 and an implied win probability of 61%. In contrast, the Nationals are underdogs at +145, with an implied win probability of 39%. However, given the projections, this matchup presents an intriguing opportunity for the Nationals to defy expectations and secure a much-needed win at home.

Quick Takes New York Mets:

Over his previous 3 games started, Clay Holmes has seen a significant fall off in his fastball velocity: from 92.9 mph over the whole season to 91.6 mph lately.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher who improves his velocity will likely see improved results.

Extreme flyball hitters like Juan Soto usually hit worse against extreme flyball pitchers like Brad Lord.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the New York Mets' bullpen ranks as the 9th-worst out of all the teams in Major League Baseball.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Quick Takes Washington Nationals:

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) expects Bradley Lord to be on a bit of a short leash today, projecting a maximum of 80 pitches.

• A pitcher who is on a pitch count is likely to be pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.

Josh Bell has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this season (71% of the time), but he is penciled in 6th in the batting order in today's game.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Nathaniel Lowe has a 98th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (40.6%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them out towards the game's 10th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Washington Nationals have hit the Team Total Over in 9 of their last 11 games at home (+7.35 Units / 58% ROI)
• The New York Mets have hit the Run Line in 8 of their last 12 games (+5.25 Units / 34% ROI)
• Josh Bell has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 7 games (+7.90 Units / 113% ROI)

New York Mets vs Washington Nationals Prediction

Predicted Final Score: New York Mets 5.36, Washington Nationals 4.16

• Date: April 26, 2025
• Venue: Nationals Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Clay Holmes - Mets
  • Brad Lord - Nationals

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